After reviewing Valero (VLO) and Great Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) and Pacific Ethanol's first two quarterly earnings reports I believe Pacific Ethanol will report the following numbers on Wednesday.
Sales = $221,000,000
Cost of goods sold = $211,000,000 (95.48%)
Gross Profit = $10,000,000 (4.52%)
SG&A expense = ($3,000,000)
Interest expense = ($4,000,000)
Fair Value Adjustment =+ $900,000
Other expense = ($175,000)
Net Income = $3,725,000
Preferred Dividends = ($315,000)
Net Income available to common shareholders = $3,410,000
earnings per share = .24
The only true unknowns are:
1. The amount of revenue generated from corn oil in the quarter. This will increase revenue.
2. The number of outstanding shares is vague due to recent warrant conversions. used 14.2 million.
3. The fair value adjustment is based on current factors and could be much larger.
Give it your best shot and let's see who is right.
4. The amount of money burned on lawyers defending against the major patent infringement lawsuit filed against patent infringing PEIX.
PEIX is burning cash on lawyers that claimed they weren't infringing since they weren't extracting in Stockton. Then they turned around and PR'd they're extracting in Stockton. The good judge will see right through their lies and the money wasted on this worthless defense is gone forever.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
range of .15-.30 per share and will be determined by the amount fair value adjustment. Outlier is the recent sugar purchase and if Good Buddy Neil booked the entire cost in the third quarter without any additional revenue in an effort to keep the share price down. Remember he waited until October 1 to disclose the sugar acquisition. Sugar savings will all be realized in 4th quarter and 2014.
That's what I said concerning the sugar acquisition. The date choosen for the announcement was made on purpose. October the first is the first day of Q4 but it is just after the last day of Q3.
NK has a personnal interest to keep the share price down. Then, he will be able to complete his dividend paiement (3.6 millions) and be so sorry to make it with new offering cause all the Q3 profit would have been use for the sugar paiement.
The other scenario is to leave the cost in Q4 and present an awesome Q3. They should had used sorghum in this quarter and they will have revenu from corn oil from magic valley. This can be a nice surprise for the Q3 numbers.
24 cents a share would be a nice follow up to the positive second quarter earnings. GPRE already reported that the fourth quarter is even better than the third. It looks like 2013 will finish nicely for PEIX.
I hope you aren't right...........nothing personal, but with the great margins we supposedly had in Q3 it's a joke to have a measly 3.4M profit and that won't do much of anything for the share price. The numbers you put up are reasonable, but we need more to move this price.
Also reminds us how bad of a drag these interest payments are on the bottom line........and more than likely they'll have to dilute again to get to 100% and maybe even to stay afloat in the first half of 2014 when the margins are expected to be barely break even.
I really hope I am wrong.
Good conservative estimate.
1. None, corn oil was not being commercially produced in q3, check the recent pr.
2. The warrents were backed by stock after the shareholder meeting so the os will stay at 14.2 mil
3. That is the million dollar question.
My question for Q3 is: How much did they get for the corn storage facility in Madera?
1. Corn oil was being produced at Magic Valley for the entire third quarter and should provide around $1 million in additional revenue for the quarter. The Stockton plant just started corn oil production in the fourth quarter so the company should have around $2 million in corn oil revenue for the fourth quarter of 2013.
SACRAMENTO, Calif., May 29, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (Nasdaq:PEIX), the leading marketer and producer of low-carbon renewable fuels in the Western United States, has begun commercial production of corn oil utilizing ICM Inc.'s Advanced Oil Separation System™ at its Magic Valley, ID plant.
Neil Koehler, the company's president and CEO, stated: "Corn oil is a high value co-product with multiple markets including animal feed and biodiesel. Corn oil sales at our Magic Valley plant diversifies our revenue streams, providing greater financial stability to the plant, and is expected to contribute as much as $4.5 million or seven cents per gallon of operating income annually."
2. Over the last 18 months the warrants have been cashed in early by some holders, as is their option, so that number is a factor and remains unknown. The 14.2 will change, and probably already has. The analyst predicts it will hit 16 million by years end.
There has not been a PR that Madera's elevators were sold, just that they had been separated from the plant in anticipation of a sale. A sale should add millions to the cash picture with proceeds most likely being applied to the USDA sugar purchase.
Good numbers, but I don't see WDG revenue and 3rd party from Kinergy. Kinergy will generate $0.03 per brokered gallon (on the VERY low side) on 225,000,000 gallons, or $6.75 mm. WDG kicks another $3.75 mm into the mix. Since you have already calc'ed the expenses, that's another $10.5 mm across 14.6 mm shares (that IS the float), so I'm upping YOUR number to $0.95 per share.
Now, if you could just tell us how to straighten out the financial reporting agencies' ERRORS on the existing eps number
tell us how to stop the run-away computerized hedge/index shorting, then perhaps the pps would stabilize.
Absent that, it will be another "smack down" on earnings day!