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Panera Bread Company Message Board

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  • hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Jan 15, 2003 9:38 PM Flag

    <OT> Anyone check CEDC today?

    I did sell CEDC at 22.18 and 21.66 Monday and Tuesday. My thinking was that an earnings surprise was already in the stock and that it was likely to sell off when earnings come out. Today's announcement was much better than I had expected. Nevertheless, I am surprised at how strong CEDC was today and how it just got stronger as the day went on. It would not surprise me if they earned more than they're projecting this year, because of acquisitions (expressly not in their number), and the likelihood that they will start distributing other products. Nevertheless, after more than doubling my money in 4 months, I'm not planning to chase it. Warren Buffett's remark that the market pitches many balls and you only have to swing at a few right ones and can take as many as you want, is appropos. I would consider getting back into CEDC if it came down to the 20 area. Poland's admission to the Eu with the resulting opportunities, tarriff reductions and potential takeover possibilities makes CEDC intriguing. I was also impressed with the last conference call. So, while I'm out, I sold too soon and certainly like the stock for the long term.

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    • hot,

      We're probably going to have to take this over to the CEDC board pretty soon.

      The EU card is the most important to me. What they're doing, IMO, is setting up a distribution system that goes way beyond the distilled spirits portion of their business. I liken them to a cross between a 7-11 and a grocery store. They are building a brand in Poland. The adoption of the euro in Poland will make commerce easier, and with brand recognition they will have the clear advantage. Plus they are building an impressive supply chain, from scratch. As we all can see with K-Mart, if your supply chain sucks, you're in deep doo-doo (Wal-Mart knows in REAL TIME the actual sales of every SKU in their store. Also, many of their suppliers are paid ONLY after an item has been scanned - this commissary stock practice = the ultimate in low accounts payable. K-Mart; they're lucky if they know what they have in stock!).

      All this sounds so similar to a certain bread company these past few years...

      Disclaimer: As always, IMHO. Position disclosure: Flat (PNRA); Long (CEDC)


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