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Panera Bread Company Message Board

  • freshbread4u freshbread4u Feb 23, 2003 10:20 AM Flag

    Bad news compounds

    With the poor first period sales figures still a recent event, the blizzard from last weekend should remove the ability of Panera to make up for the first period debacle. In truth, the blizzard may have affected enough of Panera's stores to result in an actual downturn in same store sales for this period (although a small rise -- below the basis for the guidance-- is more likely). Someone should surely ask the company during the upcoming call whether it will still be able to meet its targets given this spate of bad weather. Ron will no doubt say yes, but we may see a few more CFO's departing as the struggle to meet the numbers gets more intense.

    Although I have thought highly of the Panera concept for many years, I still think that the short term prospects for the company are poor. Ron will do his softshoe this week, but he is hitting a wall of troubles. Look for him to raise guidance for 04 while leaving 03 the same. This will give him time to do a deal which will disguise the failure to meet these new guidance figures while supporting the stock so he can sell more of his stock before the collapse.

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    • Also, nobody cares how many flaps of your wings it took you to get home from Japan. Next time try swimming. Keep your posts on topic...this is not your school chat room.


      MAJOR BURN! ! !

    • dont,

      Your point is well-taken, and is correct. In my post, I had no opinion on the weight thing - it was an observation. It was quite striking when I was walking through an extremely packed Tokyo subway station - and everyone was thin! I'm just not used to seeing that, that's all.

      Disclaimer: As always, IMHO. Position disclosure: Flat


    • thats real funny pal,,,

      you tried to call it a "buy"

      I'm thinking to myself

      "who the hell is he to say its bottomed?"

      somone who missed the top so badly...

      and yeah- I was the guys screaming
      to the fund managers at $37 to get the hell out

      merril dumped a bunch right at that level,
      they got it.....they know Grinchy don't
      pull no punches...

      they nailed the endzone...

      you fumbled...badly

      and your still giving advice....

      sorry pal, learn to catch a few passes
      first.....maybe practice in the back yard.

      before you try to enter "the big game".

    • hot,

      ANYONE with a two month horizon has already lost the game!!!!! Prices (as you put it) and ENTERPRISE VALUES (as I put it), are by definition a RANGE of valuation. So far (JMO) you are exhibiting a typical response when one does not understand TRUE VALUE, and is nervous about it. I would be too if I were a 'mindless long!' & didn't have the DISCIPLINE to follow a solid investment strategy.

      "You are obviously a practitioner of the coward's prognostication rule: if you predict a price, don't predict a time, and if you predict a time don't predict a price. So, no matter how high the stock goes, you'll never be wrong because it might decline in 5 years."

      -- Re-read what you wrote at least twice, and try to understand. The KEY to investing is preservation of capital. Growth of capital is actually secondary. I participated in the incipient stage of PNRA & am proud to have done so (a nice 4-5x bagger on the long side). When the risk became too great (and yes my first sale of PNRA stock was AFTER Ron Shaich made his), I exited on a disciplined basis. When I saw the mighty mo' momentum idiots take over, I did some 'non-longing' to my (& the tax man's benefit). IF YOU CAN CALL IT RIGHT IN "FIVE YEARS" as you put it, you will win the game!!!! There are many stocks when one only gets one or two chances to 'make it.' JMHO, but make sure you are not blinded by ephemeral earnings numbers & projections (honestly the only way IMHO to be long PNRA) at an enterprise value over $500M. All JMHO.....Good luck to all.....

    • You are obviously a practitioner of the coward's prognostication rule: if you predict a price, don't predict a time, and if you predict a time don't predict a price. So, no matter how high the stock goes, you'll never be wrong because it might decline in 5 years. I am harder on myself: If Panera doesn't reach 30 in 2 months, I will agree that this particular prediction was wrong.

    • Instead of admitting that you falsely stated that Ron would "increase" 2004 guidance, or responding to my specific points about...

      only way they will raise guidance...

      is if more people DIE

      counting revenue/earnings from DEAD employees?

      what a JOKE of a company

      keep babbling pumper boy

    • hot,

      You're right, nothing posted on a message board can be 'certified.' I was there (as an investor) during the Au Bon Pain days & I can assure you while 'Ron S. & Gang' are enthusiastic, they have also learned their lesson(s). That is why they have been (and continue) to dump en masse. I have repeatedly said they probably deserve it & if the market wants to be 'dumb,' so be it. After all, the filings are there!! More to a point, you were one to excuse the selling, (IMHO) to a fault......

      Now having said this, I wish you well and still think fresh is right on. We will see what happens with PNRA -- the 'history' of many companies' stocks is to overshoot both on the upside and downside....Let's see where she goes......Good luck to all......

      "......the market has strongly disagreed with you as to some much lower "fair valuation" that you refuse to specify."

      -- BTW, what have you been smoking? The game continues, & the fat lady hasn't sung yet on this one -- valuation is always a moving target.....

    • One would think from reading your post that I was predicting that Pnra will go to 40 by next Tuesday. Far from being overly optimistic, I said repeatedly that Pnra was overvalued at 37. Because I considered 30 to be a reasonable pivot point, I have been writing 30 calls for the last 6 months. Recently, I believe that the stock has declined more than is warranted by the recent news (Moreton, bad weather, slightly weaker SSS in last period). Accordingly, I bought the May 30 calls back for 1.00. I think Ron is likely to come up with good news tomorrow -- not to get the stock back to 37, but good for a few points which will allow me to again write calls at a better premium. If that's a blinding bull, guilty as charged. In reality, though, you have been very bearish for a long time. Thus far, while you may have profited on a recent short (I can't tell since you don't report your transactions in real time, indeed at all), the market has strongly disagreed with you as to some much lower "fair valuation" that you refuse to specify. I've been following this stock closely since 1995 and have learned 2 important lessons: first, don't ever count Ron out. He has a passionate desire to succeed not only for himself, but for his employees and shareholders.I was at an Au Bon Pain shareholder's meeting after the stock had declined to 7. Ron convinced me that day that he knew what to do to turn things around and that he would almost certainly succeed. Second, to ignore growth in your valuation metrics, as you always do, is to not be valuing a company properly. Pnra is not expensive at this price. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

    • My goodness man, fresh is dead right, and you are dead wrong. Yes, you can look at it the way you do, but it is NOT rational, & it most certainly is NOT profit-maximizing (which is the name fo the game). We all know you love PNRA, and are willing to sacrifice your first-born to PNRA's alter, but my goodness I'm being blinded by the rays of light you are putting out on PNRA -- get some shades & an ounce of skepticism (it's healthy!!!). All JMHO....Continued luck to you and to all........

    • An excellent post!!! Once again you are showing the 'proper level of skepticism.' I like your style & your thought process.....Keep it going.....JMO...Good luck to all....

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