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Panera Bread Company Message Board

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    • "With that kind of tenacity, a stock such as WCOM, WinStar, Exodus, Enron and the like would have wiped you out."

      -- No kidding. You are taking this wwwwaaay too simplistically. Invest in what you KNOW, not hyped-up situations (lesson #1 from Peter Lynch). Anyone with an OUNCE of 'proper skepticism' (or read a 10Q, 10K) would have avoided those situations (profiting by 'non-longing' it is another story)........

      "Forgive me, but if you have so many 10x-baggers+, you must by now be either filthy rich a la Bill Gates; or we are missing something."

      -- I have had the pleasure of 4 10x-baggers. They helped out immensely, mind you, in almost any amount (but yes, at least above $10,000 invested). I have also had a smattering of 4x-5x baggers which also are extremely nice PNRA was one for me). Everything is relative, so after taxes let's just say I am poised to be one of the few beneficiaries during this current market weakness. I am excited, the market is finally getting healthy (i.e. capital is finally being allocated 'properly') & for the first time since Oct. '98 things overall are really looking fantastic from an investment perspective. Now most investors don't feel this way, but being a contrarian has its 'benefits.' Good luck to all....

      PNRA is currently a 'most-favored' nation, let's see what eventually happens.....

    • Mr. Monster,

      I was disappointed by your last post; but even more so with this one to which I am replying. Ignoring your religious reference, I was expecting more of an explanation. Discipline not only implies the existence of a system or set of rules, it requires it. Discipline can only exist when one is being true to something and not straying. Be that as it may. I guess my basic question deals with the magnitude of your expectation as to how far the market will go down after you make a purchase. If you mean that the market takes the stock down another percentage point or so, that's understandable. No one catches the exact low point every time. But you talk about buying three or four times on the down slope. That is questionable. With that kind of tenacity, a stock such as WCOM, WinStar, Exodus, Enron and the like would have wiped you out.

      Forgive me, but if you have so many 10x-baggers+, you must by now be either filthy rich a la Bill Gates; or we are missing something. It doesn't take too many powers of 10 to become wealthy beyond what is spendable. Of course, it is always possible that you are not really risking much.

      Rethink It

    • All of my best gainers (10x-baggers+) NEVER came after I made an initial purchase at what I perceived to be a 'value' level. The market ALWAYS saw fit to take the price lower. Why? ONLY the Higher Being knows. In some cases it was the third or even fourth puchase before the market 'turned.' Of course I have been party to multiple 'false starts,' & given 20/20 hindsight I could have made a mint trading trdaing various companies. However by trading In-N-Out, I would have really missed the big-Kahuna gainers that have more than made up the S-T moves & gotten me to the L-T section of Schedule D. One must decide in life if they are true value & patient or a trader. I admire ANYTHING as long as it is followed with discipline (TA excluded). Other than that read 'One Up On Wall Street' (the original) which I consider somewhat of a 'Bible.' I follow tha majority of those tenants to the letter. Amazes me on how so many people attack it w/o realizing it. Good luck to all.....

    • re_think,

      No, I did not jump in on the latest dip. But, had I followed my own advice from many posts back (gee, PNRA always seems to find support at 25. If it doesn't blow through it, I may buy back in...), it would have been quite profitable. Some stocks are just like that. More mental than fundamental.

      With value, you have to learn to look past the chaff to get to the wheat. I understand where he's coming from. However, he gets tightly wrapped around the axle with mighty mo-mo idiot and mindless long comments. I understand, though, his view on being a lemming in the marketplace. If that's your investment style, then you're better off taking your money out of the bank, cashing it in for $1 bills, and taking them home and burning them one at a time in your fireplace. You'll get the same effect as being an investment lemming (burn up all your money), but at least you'll stay warm!

      This week's run-up was encouraging, but was concentrated in bigger cap issues. The mid and small cap stocks didn't participate as broadly, except, oddly, the restaurant and retail sector issues. They did quite well. I have my list, and I'm checking it twice. I did dip a toe in on KEI and VAR a little while ago, and both are modestly profitable. I have a few more I'm considering, but want to see more conviction before commiting.

      I disagree with value on the importance of waiting for the market to move before jumping back in. I view it a lot like surfing. There's times where you just can't catch a wave no matter what you do. Other times, it's almost impossible to miss the waves (1999 to 2000). Right now, the waves are just starting to form. I'm still of the opinion many stocks will go sideways for years, but there are some pockets just waiting to be "rode". I'm waxing up my board, and getting ready to ride.....

      Disclaimer: As always, IMHO. Position disclosure: Flat (PNRA); Long (KEI, VAR)


    • Mr. S&P,

      I love it! You got my vote, though somewhat tardy.

      Rethink It

    • Mr. Monster,

      I apologize in advance. I would never presume to respond to your self-serving pat on your back addressed to Mr. Jim, if not for something you wrote which truly piqued my interest.

      You wrote:

      <"I have been buying more as the prices have dropped (on a disciplined basis), and am looking forward to more drops. Chaulk it up to 'mindless discipline,' but I've been here before, and done quite well (not for my own island yet, however).">

      I am wondering what kind of investment scheme it is which advocates buying shares when one is expecting a drop in equity prices. What is your decision making set of rules? There must be some guidelines, or else how could you be "disciplined?" Many investors have tried something like this with unfortunate results. It strikes me that the experience of the last three years would argue against intentionally buying as the markets continue to retreat.

      I look forward to your exposition regarding this investment methodology. Hopefully it will be bread for thought.

      Rethink It

    • Mr. Jim,

      Mr. Monster always attaches the word "mindless" to the word "long" whenever someone invests contrary to his views. Anyone who was long over the last four weeks clearly was either suicidal; or a very analytical individual who had a feel for the larger context, over and above the supposed valuation of PNRA at that time. That's not to say valuation should be ignored. Only that it is one of many factors which should be weighed when deciding what to do.

      You were rather complimentary to Mr. Monster and Mr. Fresh as to their ability to predict the direction of stocks. The last four weeks should expose the need to "rethink" the totality of circumstances in order to keep from falling into the "mold." It's hard at times. Good luck.

      I take it you didn't avail yourself of the opportunity presented in the last price dip. Perhaps next time. Mr. Equity is the one who really amazes me. I hope he didn't get sucked into the narrow views of the "common wisdom."

      Rethink It

    • High 'non-long' positions in companies are really lovely!!! IF one gets stock cheap enough, & has patience (admitedly tough), those shares eventually HAVE to be covered. When the inevitable bounce/turnaround comes its gonna come quick & will be painful to many who have 'non-longed' it indescrimiately. I had seven low limit buys trigger on 5 different stocks today. I haven't seen it this 'good,' since Oct. '87, Aug. '90, Oct. '98 ,(& if I had been old enough) I suspect '72-'73!! Keep it bleeding, wash out the excesses, let the turnover of shares fall into the hands of true value players. Just think of how many so-called 'investors' have been 'trained' to think differently circa '95- March '00!! It's truly the mirror image of that time period (thank goodness). Money is FINALLY being allocated efficiently, too bad the market doesn't care!!! Good luck to all......

    • I promise not to read too much into it, since it is attached to the end of a posting that involved some thought.
      I just went over my GLTA limit while on this board. Too many "I hope you shorts rot in Hell. Good luck to all" and "We're going to short this company into bankrupcy. Good luck to all." on other boards.

      Good postings to (and from) all.

      P.S. PNRA stores seem to be thriving in Chicago's northshore suburbs.

      My Position: Flat

    • I truly mean what I say, please don't read any more into it. It keeps me 'honest,' and when I type it, it reminds me of why we are all here in the first place.....

      Now I leave the ultimate judgement to the 'Higher Being' to decide who wins and loses. More often than not, it's the one with the most discipline -- whether 'non-long' or long. If you agree with me, great, since it's always nice to be agreed with. What I think you mistake for 'with me or against me' is really my harping at a lack of a discplined strategy. I am flexible enough to admire discipline even if its 180 degrees from how I 'feel.'......Truly, good luck to all.....

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