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Panera Bread Company Message Board

  • freshbread4u freshbread4u Sep 6, 2006 8:20 AM Flag

    revision to SSS guidance

    While today's SSS results were far from impressive, the guidance revision offers something positive. For the first 9 weeks of the quarter, SSS are up 1.5%; yet guidance for the entire quarter is now pegged at growth of 2-3%. In order to meet the low end of this guidance, SSS for the last four weeks will need to rise by a minimum of 3.1%

    IMO, management is quite good about never over-promising performance in its guidance. After all, it would be quite bad if sales do not even meet the lowered guidance just issued. Particularly since almost 30% of the last month of the quarter has already passed, I assume that Ron has a pretty good basis for making his prediction about sales for the quarter. To me, that indicates that we should expect a significant rise in SSS for the last month of the quarter.

    Only time will tell if this analysis is correct, but it is worth noting that a jump in SSS even up to only 4% would probably lead to a major jump in the stock price.

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