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Panera Bread Company Message Board

  • hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Apr 4, 2007 12:54 PM Flag

    Another analyst stays positive

    Investors will likely give Panera a pass on the first quarter and focus on the rest of 2007, when Panera faces easier comparisons, laps significant spending initiatives and should post stronger results, in our view," said CIBC World Markets analyst John S. Glass in an analyst note.

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    • playthekeys27 you seem angrier than everyone

      I am sorry but you're in blatant denial about this company. I was fooled also for awhile don't take it so hard

    • With the 1st Qr. profit flat, the rest 3 Qrs need to attain a profit growth of 30% average.

      No restaurant stock, not even pnra in the past, has such seasonal fluctuation. Has this anything to do with the quitting of the financial officer?

    • As I posted, profit grew 23% in '06. They always guided Q1 in '07 to be flat, but the whole year at continued strong growth. They're pretty much on plan.

    • My dear Gotta -- I'm going to point out something that I imagine is obvious to most non-poster readers, but I think it needs to be said explicitly.

      You are WAY more pissed off about yesterday's results and stock reaction (down 4%) than the longs are. In fact, you are furious and desperate about it. Thus, you will never win at trading Panera. Never.

      Everyone who knows your screen name realizes that you did not enter this game at anything like a price where you are on top now. When you post too much, you give away the game. You mentioned the stock being at 53 at some point. Why 53? Could that be your touchstone, your reference point? Gee, I wonder.

      It is absolutely hilarious watching you trying to single-handedly make this stock crash via Internet postings because that happens to be what you personally need. In the process you're commenting on a company that doesn't even exist.

      They're getting "killed" at lunch? What??? Buddy, *I* was the one who last year, despite my long position, brought to the board's attention a side comment by Ron Shaich having to do with a slight loss of extra momentum at lunch. This has NOTHING to do with the idea of being "killed." Your wild assumption here is part of the reason you cannot succeed.

      They don't pay attention to competition ... WHAT?

      Nobody goes there for dinner ... HUH?

      The food stinks ... SAY WHAT?

      The financials don't "jive up for you" -- aw, poor baby.

      Consumers have switched completely over to "price and convenience" and therefore Panera is "out of the game" -- HUH ?????? What planet are you on?

      They have no start-up expenses for new products -- SAY WHAT? Are you a restaurant operations expert now? Along those lines, they have too many people sticking around taking up space -- I'm sorry, didn't you just say nobody goes there any more, they're getting "killed," they're "out of the game"?

      Buddy -- all this has one root and one root only. Your posts are about YOURSELF, NOT PANERA. Based on nothing except your own inability to figure out what works in investing, you simply spied a relatively high P/E, which Panera has always had, and started going crazy. Period.

      Panera's release yesterday was informative and straightforward. The stock adjusted, which is what markets do, and we go forward. It's happened before, it'll happen in the future. You keep citing the "law of diminishing returns," hopelessly confusing a mathematical cliche with the simple fact that Panera continues to execute on its plan which continues to add internally generated value PER DOLLAR OF SHAREHOLDER MONEY. You assume, as you always have, that if store #1000 is 5% less profitable than store #1, which is absolutely natural, that the company is crumbling. Plain and simple, you have no idea what you're doing.

      Post away. I love seeing your desperation. Have a ball. Truly, it is both hilarious and instructive to watch from the standpoint of amateur investor psychology. Good day.

    • Pnra grew NIL% of its profit.

      It was 48 cents for 1st quarter of 2006. It is estimated to be 48 cents for the coming (1st of 2007) quarter - NOT 23%.

    • With all the "terrible" news, they grew EPS by 23% last year on an apples to apples basis. That's with bad comps. In a store that grosses 40K a week, 2% comp change is $110 a day. You call that "being killed" at lunch. I don't. Others, including CMG which I own and like, only wish they had Pnra's AUVs. Panera got to the heights of AUVs very quickly. The high AUVs make them more likely to disappoint occasionally, to be hurt a little from better McD offerings, etc. Basically, you argue that it's a trend. To me it's reversion to the mean. Better numbers are coming starting this period. When the next comp is announced, the stock will soar. I wouldn't want to be short ahead of it.

      I plan to try the new grilled salmon salad soon. If done right, that will not only help lunch but add to the dinner alternatives. A 20 PE for a 23% grower is crazy. Even if they were only growing at 20%, a 30+ PE would be justified. But the key is the turn in comps. Once it comes, the stock will rise very quickly.

      By the way, you keep dumping on Pnra's prices. "You get 2" for 6.49 in my area is a very good value, not served on paper plates either. There were always plenty of people who would never go to Panera on price. But plenty are happy to spend $8-10 for lunch when they get a quality product in a nice atmosphere.

    • gotta_do_better_then_that gotta_do_better_then_that Apr 4, 2007 11:36 PM Flag

      (If), my friend is question not a comment deemed liable.

      A new menu isn't going to do jack. The last several new offerings were bust. The original menu item sell the best but they are getting very old. It's down to price and convenience and PNRA is out of the game now on both. It will never be a dinner shop, plain and simple they just don't cut it there. Competition is killing them now on the lunch level. The best thing is that these new companies are expanding like wild fires. Also, the older established companies are changing their looks and there menus to include much healthier foods at much better prices points.

      To sit with a straight face and defend a company trading at a huge premium with YOY slower earnings growth, declining revenue growth percentage, declining cash from operations, high price to sales and has had an excuse for everything the for last year you must be off your rocker. The CEO should step it up and take accountability instead blaming everything under the sun. This is the fifteenth excuse in a row not the first.

      Do I think they have accounting problems, absolutely somethings when I review the financials they don't jive up for me. They also love to sell fools the headlines that work for them and burying the real deal deep down where you need to dig. Unfortunately too many fools trade off headlines they know this.

      Even Jimmy Cramer says if the higher up's including and especially the head honcho accountant leaves to pursue other interest and they don't tell you where they go it raises big red flags. This is in his books and on his show.

      Whatever, this stock has been running on excuse after excuse. Fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me fool me ten times in a row I am a moron. This stock has fooled people over and over with nothing but big promises and big misses to follow. I assume laughing all the way to the bank.

      Nobody at this company can admit the competition is killing them at lunch time now that they are offering the same food at lower prices.

      I mean the World Series as an excuse for crummy comps. That in all my years of investing and trading I've never heard such a hilarious and pathetic excuse. Totally classic. Take a good minute and really think about that one.

      As a little heads up that the company never mentions is you have a situation with laggards sticking around drinking a coffee and taking up valuable lunch time table space. It's a concept that has back fired on them and yet another sounds bright but isn't that bright has backfired on them.

      Glad to hear you done well but I think it time maybe to let this one go.

      The stock was 53 and has moved up all while bad news and excuses kept coming. It time to sell this down to a 22-23 P/E level. Exactly where it belongs and {IF} a big IF and when they get it going again which they won't then maybe start bidding it up. This happens all the time in the restaurant sector law of diminishing returns. There are actual documented papers on this topic for this sector.

      It's a 40 dollar stock at best.

      Since they missed SSS for basically all of last year and missed earnings for the last several quarters by a landslide, why would you believe they will make them going forward? Leave out the easy comp bull they can't even make them. Oh I forgot, the CEO who promised all last year and missed on his promises say so.

      Who really is think straight right now?

    • GO get'em ... I LOVE it ... you're GOOD at your TRADE Coun$elor!


      PS HOW do you feel about LBIX going INto the summer?

    • You obviously don't know the difference between opinion and libel. It's opinion to say the stock's PE is too high for its growth rate. It's opinion to disagree with that statement because the growth rate more than justifies the PE. It is libel to claim that the controller left because of accounting disagreements or that there are accounting problems with no evidence. I know they teach you in basher school: "make vague references to accounting problems to scare people". That doesn't turn libel into opinion. I happen to be a lawyer. Panera is one of the reasons I was able to retire at age 50. If Panera goes to 50 -- which I don't expect at all -- 80% of my stock will still have already been sold and the other 20% has a basis of 3.0625 after the split. Plus, I have taken out plenty of money writing calls. You and the other shorts are playing for a few points. I'm here for the long term. I just received an E-Mail about the new spring menu items. They are very exciting. Panera will have good comps starting this period. If you don't like my posts, please use the ignore option.

    • Not to defend my short side buddy but the note out of Goldman was about anyone using the weather as an excuse. The article they posted it on just went on about comments he also said about another company. Do you know what else was said??? That comment was for everyone using the excuse.

      Panties you sound like a real bitch. Shut the f up with the sec shit. What a pansy. Goota has a right to their opinion just as you do. Us shorts have to listen to your phony shit all the time.

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