I paid $88.34/share on Oct 01, 2010 x 400 shares and sold my position today for $128.01/share x 400 shares $39.67/share profit x 400 shares = $15,868.00 I hope my broker is right suggesting a short break on holding this stock!
In the short run, raw materials prices should only help differentiate Panera, who has 80% of costs hedged for 2011. As other chains that did not or could not hedge raise their prices, Panera can either stand pat and gain share, or raise along with them and keep the profit. Of course, the news may depress the sector overall, which has been a high flyer recently.
Long term, of course, hedging evens out. Will prices continue to increase in 2012, or will something break? After all, unlike oil and gold, they are making more food! We'll have to see how drought and flooding impacts the world this year.