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TiVo Inc. Message Board

  • lemonyelow1 lemonyelow1 Jan 13, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    Still dead money - probably worse than dead


    I have a love-hate relationship with both TIVO's products & its stock. But I come down more negative than positive - especially now - because of these 3 things:

    1) It's great for a CEO to beat the drum, but Tom overdoes it - he's like the former head of Men's Warehouse, and more importantly, it's not his job and shouldn't be. ESPECIALLY when his message - while clear - is as murky as "the cloud is big, and we want to be there."
    2) I remember when it was said that Google buying Motorola would jeopardize its relationships with customers like Samsung. Not true ... so far, but TIVO's situation is much worse in this connection. That is, it's dwarfed by the players in cable every which way - even tech savviness - and there's an adversarial relationship that almost cannot work out well. I hate it when Rogers all but lies when he talks about their "penetration" - 10 of the top 20 players. The "glass half empty" view is that there's at most one "top 10" guy in that mix. I don't know how rosy a future cable has, but the "second team" strikes me as NOT having a good future at all, ... and these are TIVO's key customers.
    3) "Direct to the consumer" - nice to have 2 cars in your garage, but not if one of them is a burro. Come to think of it, that probably would have been a better name for Roamio. It's one thing to try to cash in on Xmas with a product that needs work. Chromecast is a good example, but Google used July-November to work the kinks out and sales at $30 a pop are obviously easier to produce. The more you look at the Romio line, the more you realize that the nets and the MSOs sure as sh!t don't want to give away much, and consumers need a darn good reason to shell out a few hundred dollars and commit to another monthly charge when some of the key features to give the product a fighting chance are "coming soon" month after month. I'm sure there's a mix of bad project management, software, support and marketing AND having their hands tied by their so-called partners!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • ok, we hear the obvious "hate" part of your "love-hate relationship" with TiVo.
      I didn't detect any of the "love" part though, so not sure your post has any credibility....
      Can we ask what your SELL PRICE is, and at what point did you determine that your HATE outweighed your LOVE? What was the share price on the day you became a seller?
      Was it in 2011 when Tivo's share price bounced from $8 to $11 5 or 6 times, providing huge opportunities to cost average, or to lock in profits?
      Was it in 2012, when we broke the $12 barrier, and the years-long litigation fights were settled in Tivo's favor?
      Or was it just this past year when we took out $13?
      Was it before Roamio was offered for sale or after, and how many quarters are you willing to wait to see if it is a retail success?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to alias_commander
      • Good questions ... and I'm neither a paid basher or someone who always picks the right points to enter & exit. Methinks, those people don't post on Yahoo for any reason whatsoever.... You are obviously still in love with the co., and when I said I liked some of it -

        a) I DO think that TV has long needed a helping hand in terms of enabling mere mortals to get the most out of it. Too many channels, too little time in most people's lives, hence a huge opportunity in times past, probably STILL ... but maybe not as much & not for long.
        b) I had a big long position going into the most recent quarterly earnings report. Fortunately, even as a non-technician, the dumping of shares going into that registered on my conscientiousness, and I bailed out almost entirely before the Street voted with its feet.

        I've compared TIVO to Blackberry in the past, and in some ways the comparison looks sharper than ever. Don't forget - if you ever knew it - that before BB all but died, they bet the ranch on rolling out a spiffy new ... O.S. and some toys that incorporated it. (Sorry, they were phones.) ... I admit that TIVO's Roamio was much less a bet-the-ranch play, but they will kiss off quite a bit of the settlement money NOT gaining traction with it. You want market research - pay for it! - but I trust this particular seat of the pants judgment. You need lotsa VERY good advertising to move stuff like this, & I watch enough TV to know that TIVO cheaped out on that.

        Again, the thing I hold against TIVO the most - ditto, BB - was a man at the helm who just doesn't seem to be equal to the task. You don't have to be the smartest person in the room if you have other things going for you, but I fail to see any with Tom (He's dumb AND arrogant.) He smacks of BB's leaders over the disastrous last 5 years - he was at the right place at the right time - ONCE - but this is just too cutthroat and changing a field for an empty suit to work out well for investors.

        Only a buyout can save you/him.

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