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Epiq Systems, Inc. Message Board

  • righting_wrongs righting_wrongs Nov 23, 2001 11:55 AM Flag

    I guess I got drunk & threw up for noth


    No news, nothing. Looks like panic sell off caused by a 50,000 share block that took out the stops on the way down. People seeing volume dumped to retain profits.

    Looks like in a day or 2 we'll be back to where we were.

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    • My puny voice couldn't talk a stock down. I just gave you my opinion as I see it.

    • I have to ask the question becouse is seems like you are trying to talk the stock down. Well you are wasting your time becouse even if everyone that reads this board sold there shares and then sold some more short it would not make a hill of beens worth of difference.

      I am superised that you are off of your IBD harang.

      I will say that if the economy improves it is not a possitive for EPIQ but is the economy improving we will most likely not know for a while. I really hope that it is but if not all the better for EPIQ


    • You and I both know there is no way to predict earnings a year in advance. I'd have to go back and find the source, but a study over years of eps estimates was proven to off by 47%. That's what makes a market. I'm betting that EPIQ will beat those estimates and apparently you are thinking they will not. That's why you do your own DD and not listen to some ANALyst who sits in his/her office all day and drinks coffee. Why do you think so many people didn't see the downturn coming? I also understand dilution. EPIQ earnings were up 46% per share. But there overall net income was up about 80-90%. I think the drop was simply retail IBD investors who put stop losses in after the breakout and move up from 31 to 39 getting shaken out. I've seen that happen a lot on other stocks. Of course all is IMHO. Management, is the key to fundamentals and growth and I believe in the management of this co. Good Investing to you.

    • That day's volume was over 800,000. The "block" you are talking about was less than 6% of the volume.

      The fact that it is climbing today shows me that there is likely no more panic selling and the suckers have been shaken out.

      Gotta love it. I flipped it twice today and sold some naked Dec 35 calls. Have orders to sell more of the 35's as well as the 40's. But most of my naked options are the Deb 30 puts. They are down 60 cents today, but I won't close them yet because I am happy paying 28 for EPIQ in the next month.

      • 2 Replies to hfzeus
      • Careful with the naked call writing. I tried that and it about wiped me out. One big move against you and your out. Writing a just out of the money naked call (dec 35 ) could be brutal. If this thing hits $40 - 45 your exposure could be limitless. You could owe $1000 per contract.

        I bought EPIQ at $37.90 monday. I knew it was over the pivot point. I had been puting in limit orders to pick it up cheaper and they never hit.

      • I do not know how many people followed the IBD strategy and sold on Wednesday. If they bought in the range of 33.10 to 33.27 (with 33.10 as the pivotal point and 33.27 as 5% above the pivotal point), then they should sell before the price falls close to their purchasing price. In a conservative analysis, at least they should sell 8% below their purchase price. Let's say it was at the pivot of 33.10. They should be out when the price dropped toward 30.45. The low of Wednesday was 30.58. The price retreat accelerated toward 11:00 AM, within 15 minites prior to 11:00, the drop was from 36.7 to 32.5. Since then, it drifted further down, but with less gravity. Many IBDers may have exited during the correction. This price reduction did not escape IBD, which commenting next day that EPIQ System was not aware of anything that may have caused the price to fall by more than six dollars. Now, let's assume that the drop was most likely caused by the stop losses of IBDers, then the rationality of using IBD is in question. When many people are using the same strategy, then they can be easily manipulated by a big buyer or seller, who know when those smaller retailers buy and when they are likely to sell. Also, EPIQ has just 4 M float, which makes the manipulation even easier. This morning, trades were slow. For a long time, the best bid and ask were by the same institution, with bid at 33.23 and ask at 33.76. No one jumped to buy or sell in between for a long period of time. Any prediction for the next week?

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