To what degree do you think Blizzards Titan and Bungie's Destiny are priced into this stock?
I think both games have huge potential...but I'm still waiting for them to make my copy of Starcraft Ghost with the Call of Duty engine(in otherwords, a project can die long before it ever sees the light of day). So my question, how much upward pressure do you see these projects putting on the stock currently since their announcement, how much does a new IP traditionally add to a stock once it is shown more thoroughly at E3, and finally what type of upside comes when they start showing actual sales numbers if they are in line with most analyst estimates? I ask because it is the only real future catalyst I see for this stock that could make a 13.4 billion dollar company more valuable in a 25 billion dollar industry.
I don't think its priced in at all. ATVI is the Apple of video games and as soon as they divulge any information the copycats will begin to go to work. THe games have been in development for 4 years, and they will be 90% completed when the first (and massive) preview happens.
As of right now, since there has been no formal announcements and/or information regarding Titan, I doubt any of it is priced into the stock. Most price estimates mention, but do not factor Titan. Here is a copy and paste from my thread I started yesterday: This relates specifically to Titan- it outlines the potential the game has for ATVI.
I have been actively playing MMORPGs since 1999, and at that time, the market for MMORPGs was about 1 to 1.5 million people. Today the MMORPG market reaches out to more than 70 million people, and it is continuing to increase year to year. The problem is most MMORPGS over the past 9-10 years have been mere copies of one another; nothing is original and this massive MMORPG market is spread among 50 or so MMORPG games at the moment.
Much like its developer's predecessors, Project Titan has the potential to be groundbreaking and capture a large portion of this 70 million person market. The highest MMORPG market share belongs to League of Legends (which is roughly 12-13% of the market share), but for comparison, back in 2000 Everquest had over 80% of the market share and WoW in 2005 and 2006 commanded over 50% of the market share.
Given the drastic increase in MMORPG competition, I believe it is impossible for any groundbreaking MMORPG to command that amount of market share, but I do believe the potential to command 20-25% is there if the game is groundbreaking. Given reasonable assumptions regarding increases in MMORPG market share (especially internationally) over the next five years this could mean a 20 to 25 million subscriber base for a given game if it redefines the MMORPG industry like EQ and WoW did.