I agree with your points almost to the letter. Playing graphs and charts to determine a stock's value is a bit beyond me. I don't care about head and shoulders' and Golden Cross formations any more than care about Head and SHoulders shampoo. What I see going forward is less demand for oil and where there might be more demand, I don't see FRO participating much. We are exporting refined products now. We are paying very high prices for our oil because that is the way the oil companies operate. If demand goes down, they will just raise the price per bbl in order to satisfy stockholders. We have the same thing going on here in Hawaii, as so many people have gone solar that the utility companies are raising the rates on those who aren't solar in order to keep shareholders happy. China may indeed increase demand for crude, but they are in a position to build and haul their own needs. They don't need Mr. Fredrickson. Japan's no nuke stance should provide some hope, but there is still overtonnage. To bank on a stock and company value and price increase on a hope for war is a bit too greedy for me anyway. Best of luck and God bless.
Rails you are correct ALL the SFL stock I own I got by FRO giving it instead or above regular dividend. I am not sure how much FRO owns of FRO2012 I am sure it is posted somewhere on FRO web site as I understand it at this time FRO2012 is public only in Norway if at all. At some time it will go public on the NYSE but at first it was private the restricted to local market then to broader markets.
I hope your Golden Cross works out well for you. I am not a tech chart guy and clueless on how it works but it closed today at 6.30 up from a 30 day low of 6.21 but way below where it has been before so something other than the price of the stock is a line that will cross the price line I guess.
I have more faith in supply and demand, price of oil, tanker glut, and Iran driving FRO than a tech chart saying it will happen. I know gut feelings, tips,balance sheets or charts are never 100% accurate or the market would only go up. Something has to cause FRO to go up in price and
it should be based on something other than computer buy programs which are programed from numbers only. Not saying that does not happen as computer programs do indeed have a lot of influence in what the market does but merely saying that is merely another thing wrong with the market that a stock like FRO could go up 60% in value on no real change in value, supply demand or cash flow. In FRO situation the stock sales a service that is purely competative with no edge for better techno but based on cost factors and price of service. Right now the whole sector has been in the craper and only a long period of higher rates will add value to the whole sector. I assume the rates are above 25,000? for VLCCF ships? which is up over the lows but down from recent highs. Tankers have or have been a mere commidity.
We may not agree on everything, but at least you display some intelligence in what you write.
I appreciate the fact you put effort and intelligence in what you write, well done.
We are 1 cent away from the golden cross:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but although we do not get any shares, FRO will own shares (about 10% or so) So that means if FRO 2012 pays a $1 dividend, FRO will get a .10 divy from FRO 2012.
I cant say how accruate this is, but in a way its like in order to avoid BK, FRO gave away 20% of its assets to FRO 2012 for 10% of the new company. (But when you factor in the debt FRO2012 took on from FRO, I think it comes up pretty even.