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Infinera Corporation Message Board

  • your_no_bias_buddy your_no_bias_buddy Feb 28, 2013 1:14 PM Flag

    INFN. currently 7% overvalued

    Keep this in mind SFLs that there is fair room to drop. I would love to see it get to 90% of FMV which is $5.40 and below. Given the flat revenue growth, and shrinking margins on that flat revenue and an ever increasing share count the price should continue drop. As it did in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012.

    Last year I anticipated a cost cut of 15% layoffs so I stayed away from the stock for the most part. I did this as a cost cut would cause a bounce in the stock price. Even with the weak gross margins, a lowered cost structure will finally get the earnings up. But I was wrong and it did not occur in 2012. 2013 may be the year though as investors are weary. Revenue growth alone won't cut it now as the margins are tight. INFN will have no choice but to tighten the belt.


    Sentiment: Sell

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    • One word response: Ooops!

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Yeah OK ! INFN web-sites idicates they are looking to add minimum 38 new ee's / poisitions. Some real belt tightening going on.

      • 2 Replies to tamaracktpg
      • They may be looking to hire people needed for the new Metro product they're working on. The DTN has a Total Addressable Market of around $2 billion per year. Now with the DTN-X selling into the high capacity network market including in core networks, their TAM is now $4b per year, and they think this can increase to $6b over the next couple of years. When the Metro product that is in development starts shipping the TAM will increase to $10-12b per year. The following are comments made by Tom Fallon at the Morgan Stanley conference yesterday:

        The difference between Metro and long-haul is blurring. It's really high-capacity networks, whether it be in Metro or the core, and lower-capacity networks, mostly in the Metro. We have the PIC technology under development today that we think will bring a brand-new platform to market that will open up the lower-capacity Metro markets for us. That is probably about a $5 billion or $6 billion TAM in its own right in that time period. So we think we've taken a TAM that we participate in fully historically of $2 billion to a TAM that's going to be $6 billion over the next couple of years to a TAM that's probably in the $10 billion to $12 billion range as we introduce the Metro platform in the next few years.

      • chrisrodgers Feb 28, 2013 2:35 PM Flag

        He thinks he knows more than BlackRock. HA!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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