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Infinera Corporation Message Board

  • long_term_cap_gains long_term_cap_gains Apr 30, 2013 4:00 PM Flag

    Chinese Water Torture for Shorts

    A long way from being over. Imagine if a VZ or a major Indian contract is announced?

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Considering that it rose so significantly after earnings, this thing is trading beautifully. There are believers.

      The three biggest concrete points I took note of from the conference call: less price competition because Huawei is less of a nuisance (and ALU is a mess); sales activity is booming worldwide (ex-China, of course), including places where INFN was not quite a player, such as other parts of Asia; and guidance was effectively raised, though all they would say is that they're "comfortable" with the higher end of their earlier guidance, 20 percent. Considering that Q1 is the slowest quarter of the year and taking into account the midpoint of their guidance for Q2, chances are very high they will exceed 20 percent revenue growth this year. And this is without anything of what many expect are necessary for success in this industry, either AT&T or VZ.

      This is a product cycle stock in an industry that is in many ways broken, but, thankfully may be healing. They've got a good product. The cycle is just beginning. Competitors, CIEN excluded, look feeble.

      I say we hit double digits this year, quite easily. If not, something is terribly wrong with the entire thesis.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 3 Replies to alpha1beta2gamma3
      • Still trading very well, though it's probably better to say "grinding" very well. At some point this will accelerate, perhaps after one or two flirtations with 10. For now it continues to eat up the shares someone's selling. It's under accumulation.

        For all those who've been invested in this stock forever, about time.

        Also, incredibly ironic that the stock hit its multi-year low (?) at 4 something just a few months ago. I've seen this before. You need the old holders to give up before a stock like this takes off. I think that selling to 4 something was one set throwing in the towel (or the market makers taking the stock down, I did not follow the price movement too closely) and this grinding through progressively higher prices is another.

        Still believe in this line: "I say we hit double digits this year, quite easily. If not, something is terribly wrong with the entire thesis." We're getting there.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • Continues to trade well. There are clearly some who are selling but this is looking more and more like a breakaway gap, one of the best forecasters of trend.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • Nice summary.

        Let's see if the Company can eventually exceed it's IPO and Secondary pricing, at the least. Management has been minting a lot of new shares to keep the critical talent pool in the game and focused. Hopefully moving the goal posts farther back another 25% won't matter much and the retail investor can finally celebrate a big score.

        Legacy DTN sales need to hold their own for quite awhile, so that we get the maximum distinctive revenue ramp from the DTN-X. That looks to be how things are shaping up in 2013. After that, they can step away from 10G and ride the 100G tidal wave and hope they don't wipeout.

    • Badda Bing Badda Boom !

8.935+0.135(+1.53%)10:32 AMEDT