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  • stan91724 stan91724 Apr 2, 2008 12:53 PM Flag

    Markox...Question for you

    Saw your post on the TSL board...I have positions in a few of these solar stocks...New to the sector as of Just 2 weeks ago now...I missed the first run up in them & this was my chance...What are your best picks???I trade a little but believe solar could possibly be the next big thing so I want to maintain a partial buy & hold strategy as you seem to employ...TIA


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    • depends on your time frame

      I am in TSL only for now

      I thought they had the best quarter last quarter, and have the best valuation right now, but was looking for a technical breakout

      yesterday I wrote I was shocked solar stocks were not moving now that risk was back in the market and I wrote "maybe tomorrow". So I bought quite a bit of TSL on a whim even if the chart did not confirm it. This stock has been in a basing pattern for a huge amount of time and hence should have a huge move up. STP already had a lions share of its move ... but if SPWR and STP break through resistance they could continue on and on.

      I am a sucker for value plays which usually gets me sucked into the worst of breed solar stocks and I've actually been a bad chooser in this sector since "momentum" trumps "value" - I sat months in SOLF losing money. I sat in months in TSL making nothing while other things took off etc.

      But just from a value perspective I like TSL - they have 1 major issue - potential dilution from their polysilicon plant and I'd wish management would just drop it, or announce the dilution. Its been an overhang for 5 months now. Without that, it would be an easier call. But my chips are with TSL and I flipped some CSIQ this morning and I like the JASO chart.

      LDK is the dark horse - much like TSL a great value that never gets rewarded :)

      I have avoided the speculative junk like ASTI/DSTI/HOKU
      or also rans like CSUN
      SOLF has a convertible overhang which I dont like now
      YGE has a weird management structure

      STP issue is failing to deliver last Q but in the long run still a STP fan due to size/scale.

      So they all have warts

      FSLR even has warts - one day polysilicon will drop and their competitive advantage dies. WFR will die once polysili drops as well.

      They all have their issues - it just depends on your time frame.

      • 2 Replies to markox5
      • I closed out positions on CSUN and STP today, netting over 22% and 25% respectively. LDK and HOKU are the only solars I remain in. There are a lot of rubber ducks in the pond. They bob up and down willy nilly. The only advice I can give is to buy low. Be patient, these ADRs and stocks are very volatile. Just because one looks good is no reason to enter right away. Wait for the stock to come to you. Sure as day goes into night, they will.

      • Thank you Mark for such a well thought out response...Missed the 14 15 basing pattern on JASO...That is one I follow...You're not real big on solf???Kinda like that chart before today...You're right Mark...This is like juggling hand grenades...I will sell some STP when the rsi peaks & hold the rest...This is a young industry for now...Solar etf is gex, Actually it's alt energy...

        I thought solar was a joke a while back & now I can see it's becoming mainstream...Made a bundle in oil & gas Mark...Digging now in the solar patch...


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