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AXION INTL HLDGS INC Message Board

  • mikebert mikebert Jun 15, 1998 2:23 PM Flag

    Big volume today

    but hardly any movement. I'm surprised (and disappointed) with the lack of response to Friday's announcement.

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    • Holding Until $45 then look for see/saw occuring heading back to the 30's until December and then back up.
      Just my hunch.

      Go anlt! :)

    • Moving averages is the domain of conventional TA,
      which I do not practice. There are several posters,
      here (Technical Tom comes to mind) who are
      knowledgable about this.

      My own expectations were for
      mid-to-high 30's right around earnings time. This was before
      the acquistion announcement. Although 38 is a fair
      price for this stock at earnings time, with the
      acquisition, an argument could be made for 45 as a fair price
      in October. Perhaps investors are jumping the gun?


      At some point the momentum crowd is going to come
      back. This stock has run up 70% in less than 2 months.
      Remember that this stock got to 54, against a fair value
      of maybe 30, how high could it rise against a fair
      value of 45? So what we are seeing could be speculation
      in the event of the return of the momentum
      players.

      Either way I am mightily pleased with 38, now 5 of my 6
      purchases I made are in the black.

    • you wrote:

      If you can do this kind of
      predicting, why not quit your day job? :)

      If it turns
      out that I can, I will :)

      But seriously, I
      only got the idea for this sort of analysis early last
      month (see post 572). I used it on ANLT, of course, to
      predict a bottom at 24, which was about 10% high. I used
      it on CCF to predict a bottom at 14 (so far its been
      as low as 12 1/2), once again, about 10% high
      (unless CCF goes down further-ugh!). With CHSE it was
      about 15, actually got to about 14 1/2--3% high.
      Finally INTC is predicted to bottom just below 60. The
      lowest it has gotten was 65, so I'm about 10% too low
      there (INTC is at 77 now, so I don't know if it will
      fall further, but it might).

      So far everything
      has been bottoms. The projection for AOL is my first
      attempt at a high. Let's see what happens.

    • The 50 & 200 day MA act as resistence and when
      pierced going up it is a good sign for accelerated upward
      price movement. The most difficult part of investing is
      when to sell. For a high momentum stock such as ANLT
      one guideline is to take profits at 50% above the 50
      day MA or 100% above the 200 day MA. Some may want to
      sell a portion of their holdings prior to that level.
      The real strong momentum stocks sometimes climb
      higher that these levels, but not many. Good
      Luck.

      The Pathfinder

    • Is this a short squeeze or did Carlton Lutz recommend this stock again. Shhhh.

    • Mikebert,

      What is the significance for
      ANLT now that it is above the 50 and 200 day MAs?
      Seems like the stock has moved so quickly that
      somewhere along the line people should start taking
      profits. But technically speaking, does it add strength to
      the current price of 38.5 that the stock has just
      come back to the "average"? Looking at the yahoo 1-yr
      chart vs averages, it looks like the price has kept
      about $10 above 200 day MA. Is this a reasonable
      expectation for the future?

      Thanks,

      B

    • Mike,

      If you can do this kind of predicting, why not quit your day job? :)

      And if it hits 60, you certainly should!

      Hope you can.

      -mairez

    • You asked:
      >How long do we hold?

      I
      am working on a very specific answer to questions
      like these. Employing a statistical approach to
      historical prices I attempt to ascertain what is a low price
      for a stock (i.e. a bottom of a dwontrend) and what
      is a high price (the top of an uptrend). I then
      calculate a reasonable estimate for low price (based on
      past experience) during a downtrend to project the
      bottom, or an estimate for a reasonable high price during
      an uptrend to project a top.

      ANLT is just in
      the beginning of an uptrend. I can't make projections
      for ANLT's top except that it will very likely be
      over 60. Suppose we pick a stock that has been in an
      uptrend for a long time and may be (finally) nearing the
      top. It should be possible to test this statistical
      approach by predicting a top for that stock and then
      seeing if it actually comes true.

      I have picked
      AOL, which has been in an uptrend since October 1996.
      It is currently at 107. The statistical model
      suggests a top around 110. So we will not have long to
      wait to see if it works. I'm going to be on vacation
      over the next few weeks, so I'll be checking in fairly
      infrequently.

    • Especially in light of the recent performance
      (Shhhhhhh! mairez).

      Whisper mode:

      But very
      gratifying to see the gain. Patience is rewarded.

      No
      30K in my coffer, but more than enough of a return on
      my initial investment. How long do we
      hold?

      -mairez

    • on this board! I'm very pleased with ANLT thus far, am in the black by 30K :)

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