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  • TechnologyStockTrader TechnologyStockTrader Jul 9, 1998 3:50 PM Flag

    Why the sudden drop? Anybody?

    As I watch ANLT plunge nearly $4/share ... on no news?

    Can anybody give me a clue?


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    • I'm sure that it will become patently obvious
      that I do not have a life when I admit that I spent
      Friday night reading historic ANLT threads. I was,
      however, intrigued by your 10 July 98 post intimating your
      use of appreciated value and margin to avoid tax
      bills. In theory, it makes sense that you could
      appreciate considerable wealth in this fashion, provided the
      stocks you use as collateral do not depreciate. ANLT's
      horrifying trip from 53 to 16, however, would have resulted
      in the mother of all margin calls. On the other
      hand, if you periodically lock in healthy profits by
      selling, you're certain to accrue sizable capital gains
      bills from our favorite uncle. I appreciate your
      previous thoughtful posts and share your optimism for
      ANLT's future, and would appreciate a hypothetical
      explanation of how this type of wealth appreciation might
      come to fruition. TIA

    • I'm getting closer! What happened? did you run out of money at 30???????

      Just curious

    • I agree with Aii... on the quarterly comparisons.
      4.7% quarterly earnings growth translates to 20%
      annual growth. I read somewhere that this was the
      internal growth rate of ANLT's business. Since there were
      no acquisitions affecting the bottom line this
      quarter, they're still on track.

      Seems to me the
      Cartotech acquisition (accretive earnings due beginning
      next quarter) is the gravy for which I've invested in

    • I don't think the earnings disappointed the
      Street. Weren't estimates for .27?

      I think the
      chances are very good for at least one accretive
      acquisition in 1999. It seems to me that the secondary
      offering, aside from paying off debt, opens the door to the
      possibility of an acquisition even larger than that of

      I agree with '99 earnings estimate of ~1.30 or
      better before acquisitions. I'm less sure about 60 stock
      price by fall '99. My own expectations are more
      conservative, but who knows what valuations the market may
      bestow, at least temporarily?

    • I expected 30 cents this quarter and we got only
      28 cents. This event was in and of itself enough to
      spook TL into selling. Considering both the new stock
      issue and the dissappointing earnings, a price in the
      high 20's to low 30's seems quite reasonable to me. I
      still expect an EPS of ~$1.30 for 1999 without any
      further acquisitions, and a stock price of 60 by fall

    • I hope your method of analysis is more correct than mine. If so the stock price will surely reflect it.

    • Today's negative action appears to me to be
      unwarranted, and anything below 30 appears to be a good entry
      point. Perhaps there was an absence of buyers today
      because they are lined up for the secondary.

      think TLWatson's point about the subcontractor costs is
      valid, but I think ANLT has added more bodies via
      acquisition to take care of them. Management of this company
      has been successful in growing this company (I hate
      that phrase), and I have no doubt they are aware of
      the subcontractor issue and will address it
      successfully. (I believe it's discussed in both the 10K and the
      secondary prospectus). Thus, at some point an investor has
      to look at management's past record and rely on them
      to make the right moves in the future.


    • What I hear from you is that ANLT has some lose
      ends with regards to the basic management of the
      business fundamentals. As long as these fundamentals are
      not addressed, all the growth they are doing by
      aqusition will lead to a larger company that does not
      capitalize on its size to dominate a market. What this
      portends is a stock that will only grow accelerated
      valuation by performing aquisitions. But these aquisitions
      are also a liability due to the sheer mass of
      organization. #############I must agree that it does seem odd
      that they have such a large expense for consultants
      when they have been growing. Enough already, bring
      these consultant services in house. At the very minimum
      these consultant services should be explained to the
      stockholders. #############There is one interesting twist -
      Cartotech's earnings did not show up on Q3. This should have
      a value that will play out in the stocks price in

    • I too find it useful to evaluate sequential
      comparisons, even though they can be skewed by seasonal
      factors. 14% sequential increase in revenues is equivalent
      to an annual growth rate of nearly 70%! Even with
      the increased subcontractor costs, the quarter's 4.7%
      sequential increase in earnings is equivalent to 20%
      annually. It seems to me that Cartotech will provide a
      substantial increase in ASI's capacity once they complete the
      FirstEnergy contract, which represents nearly half of Carto's
      business, next year. Subcontractor costs should certainly
      drop by then, if not before.

      acquisitions, I do not base my investment decisions solely on a
      company's acquisition plans. But ASI management has stated
      that acquisitions are part of their core strategy; and
      their record of accretive, smoothly-integrated
      acquisitions has convinced me that this is an integral part of
      the growth I can expect from this company. I am quite
      comfortable holding the stock here.

    • Hey TL,

      My original hypothesis was that
      ANLT would make me money in the long term, and
      hopefully, in the near term.

      I wasn't lamenting. but
      that may be how it reads. i was trying to be

      A 30% gain in two months is pretty darn good.
      60% gain in two months is obscene! I would have
      bailed at 60%. But you didn't.

      Maybe it all
      comes down to how many marbles one has to play
      If I had tons of marbles, then I might hold out for
      an even greater gain because I could afford to risk
      losing the profit marbles or at least some them. This
      would be weighed against hitting a double bagger which
      would increase my big bag of marbles

      I don't have too many marbles, and my thinking is
      narrow because my experience is limited. But, I don't
      lose on my investments because I hold on until I can
      at least bail out even. My investment marbles aren't
      the same as my subsistance marbles. :)

      If the
      momentum guys move the stock up, so much the better for
      me. If ANLT manages to do it on their ability to
      perform as a company, that gives even greater
      satisfaction. Either way, I'm not in love with the stock or
      ANLT. I just want to convert my little bag of marbles
      into a big bag like yours. :)
      (And I won't be
      quitting my day job any time soon.)

      -mairez (who
      still wants to get rich)

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