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  • richa58 richa58 Jun 5, 1999 6:08 AM Flag

    Larger float


    Several times I have decided to get out of ANLT,
    only to change my mind. ANLT looks extremely good,
    especially in comparison to many of high flying stocks. But
    it hasn't moved as of late. Its chart is all over
    the place, and if the past is a good guide, it should
    move up into the upper 30s or low 40s when it finally
    decides to move. ANLT's main problem is liquidity. The
    large institutions need liquidity and ANLT has such a
    small float, it doesn't provide such. If the company
    could some how get more shares out to the public,
    without hurting the price, it would be good for the

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    • Nomadic, I'm glad that we ultimately came to the
      same decision as to the excellent prospects for ANLT.
      But I'm curious as to how you assigned the basis pts.
      you used in your valuation. Are they subjective on
      your part, or is there a more objective way you arived
      at them?
      TIA - K.

    • Been around for 75 years or so-Profitable-source of soft ware for on line brokerage operations-

    • ago...

      that way we could benefit from what they are doing to us in the market place with their MMs.

      Owning NITE woulda been a good "hedge" for trading on the NASDAQ.


    • >>As to the Wall St. issues that you have
      referred to - what specifically are you unhappy with? I
      guess I don't see mgmt. falling short in this area. To
      make that a prime focus beyond which is prudent
      becomes stock promoting and hyping. I would rather see
      mgmt. act in the best long-term interest of the co. and
      their shareholders, not for the

      They shouldn't preoccupy themselves with it but whence
      you avail yourselves to being a public company you
      have to manage the IR image. I think what I would like
      to see is ANLT to be more consistant with deflating
      investor expectations as and when appropriate so that the
      shorts aren't given the opportunity to play as extreme a
      game as they have been able to in the past. If
      disclosure was done with an eye to take some of the
      volatility out of the stock I think the longs would be

      Mind you this isn't MSFT. It is a little itty
      bitty company which could have alot more stablizing
      effect on its stock than we are seeing.

      As far as
      the money makers in the stock you aren't going to
      change them....the only way to avoid that is to get big
      enough to become a NYSE issue.

    • I believe cash flow is King. I've believed that
      since last summer. I believe the cash flow war is over
      and the walking dead are about to be

      Your cash flow work is the only emperical info
      available and everyone interested in ANLT should memorize

    • I have to agree. I was upset by the secondary.
      When it started to affect the stock price I posted
      vehemently that they should cancel the secondary. A week or
      two later they postponed it and later cancelled it.
      By this action I knew they did care about
      shareholder value, which is critically important to their
      industry consolidation strategy

      They really did muff the secondary. Had they announced
      in Feb 1998 they would have gotten it off at a price
      around 30 I would imagine, which would be just great.
      One of the stocks I own, UTI, pulled off a splendid
      secondary right in the middle of a huge runup in 1997. As a
      result they were cash rich in the subsequent collapse in
      oil prices and could pick up assets cheap.

    • ANLT has negative cash flow because is has large
      DSO (i.e. large unbilled revenues) and because it has
      large A/R. When I refer to the "cash flow problem" I am
      referring to all of these.

      Now this sort of
      fluctuation in cash flow is a normal part of business--see my
      cash flow

      But, ANLT management called attention to it when they
      announced they were going to issue a secondary, and
      mentioned one of the things they wanted to do was *pay down
      debt* The question arises, why a secondary now, and
      not, say, in 1997, when cash flow was strong? Could it
      be they are in trouble and are going to need the
      money (i.e. cash flow will be negative for a long time
      and they worry about getting additional

      Thanks to Nomadic and TLWatson for completing this last
      piece of the short puzzle in my mind.

    • I have spoken before to many of you about what a
      good IR is vs. what a bad IR is. I have given you
      examples of the IR departments that are ahead of the game.
      But as it is not often that I get in front of this
      large a group of opinionmakers, I want to stress a few
      points. The IR's job is to know who is doing the buying
      and who is doing the selling, especially impact
      buying and selling. It is important for the IR to know
      who we are, the buyers and sellers, know us by name,
      woo us even, as a politician woos a constituency.
      Don't hesitate to ask us, ask large accounts, what your
      company should be doing more of, to get the story out.
      And make sure you have our home numbers and our
      emails so you can get a hold of us in an emergency or on
      weekends so we are not blindsided by sudden conference
      calls that we must scramble to get on.

      I don't
      envy you now. You have the electronic constituency and
      the institutional constituency and the corporate
      constituency and they all need your attention. But never
      forget the real constituency, which is to get the truth
      out, even in a painful way, so your company is viewed
      as being on the level no matter what. That's the
      true price-earnings multiple expansion that an IR can
      create. I think this is such an important task, and I
      think it can be performed so terribly and to the
      detriment of your own enterprise that I spent a good deal
      of time last year working with Kurt Andersen, writer
      of the current bestseller, Turn of the Century, to
      depict the role of the irresponsible IR, the one who can
      really kill the enterprise. I felt so strongly about
      this, about letting you see a book where the IR is the
      chief villain, Henry Saddler, the IR of the fictional
      Mose Broadcasting, that I had Random House ship a
      hundred Turn of the Century novels down here. They are
      outside in the hall, and it is strictly first come, first
      served. Read it and ask yourselves, have you ever pulled
      a Hank Saddler? If you have, it is not too late to
      change your ways before you go to IR hell!

      are bizarre times. Only you can help us understand
      why a stock is doing what it is doing, in a world
      where stocks have replaced baseball, football and
      basketball as the pastime of choice. You are both in the
      booth and on the field. You are calling the game. Don't
      let us down and help yourselves and your company.

    • This middleman cut out, still one more middleman
      pole-axed by the Net, is vital for you to understand. You
      can tell your story without the analysts now, as not
      many investors trust them anyway. You can tell the
      story by taking ads out on the Web and by soliciting
      the opinionmakers on the Web. Those who read stories
      on the Web are now the marginal buyers of your
      stock, not the institutions themselves. These are the
      people who decide where your stock opens and closes,
      especially the newer companies. The whole lesson of this new
      era, this one that started when online trading got to
      be so cheap that people started dumping their
      full-service brokers and doing it themselves, is that there is
      no middleman between you and the buyers and sellers.
      It is just you and them. How you manage the stock is
      how you interact with these new buyers and sellers.
      If you ignore them, they will go elsewhere. If you
      cater to them, they will buy your stock. You must
      appeal directly to them.

      That means a whole new
      world of dissemination. For starters, how many of you
      put your conference calls on the Net? I want to see
      some hands. Those of you who don't, you will be
      targeted by the SEC before this year is over -- I am
      convinced of it. If you do not open those conference calls
      up to all, at least on a listen-only mode, you will
      run smack into Arthur Levitt's campaign against
      selective disclosure. Levitt doesn't want any institution,
      buy or sell, to have a leg up on the individual. If
      your lawyers aren't telling you this, they haven't
      been doing their jobs. Conference calls should be open
      to all. Now! As of the second quarter, in four

      Second, do you put your releases out
      first on the Net? Or do you still send those faxes out
      to a select few? That's also wrong. You have to use
      the Net if you want to disseminate the news in a full
      and fair way. Third, you think the story isn't being
      told well? Advertise on the Net. Don't advertise in
      some monthly magazine with a deadline for copy that's
      months before the audience reads it. That's why I
      stopped writing for the monthlies: They are totally
      irrelevant when it comes to investing and will not even
      exist three years from now if I have something to do
      with it, and believe me I do. Don't waste your
      precious IR ad dollars on those losers, especially when
      they don't link you to a trading room. You can click
      on the bottom of a page of SmartMoney magazine,
      which I helped found, and wonder of wonders, it doesn't
      take you anywhere! But you can press a button on the
      Web, and you have one-click shopping just like Amazon
      (AMZN:Nasdaq). Or you can place a banner that allows your whole
      story to be told in a Web page. Accept that Web is the
      way of the future as the investors and traders will
      no longer be happy reading articles three months
      from now about your stock that were written yesterday
      -- as I had to do for every monthly I have written

      Fourth, demand that the sell-side
      institutions that host periodic seasonal conferences for your
      CEOs open those meetings to the Net and to Net
      reporters. The dead-tree guys don't bother covering these
      events, because, as I said earlier, they don't care about
      stocks. But people on the Net live and breathe stocks.
      Let these events be covered by the Net and you won't
      run afoul of the selective disclosure rulings that
      will soon be the law of the land.

      And, no
      matter what you do, don't go on the Internet message
      boards. You can look; you can find out what the rumors
      are. I think that is vital, as the message boards move
      stocks, sometimes more powerfully than any other medium
      right now. But right now the message boards are a place
      of hype and hate, and if you go there, you will be
      drawn in and you will regret it. Just be sure that no
      one is pretending to be you or to work for your
      company. Police the boards, but do not respond to them.
      And don't let your CEO look at them. It is a brutal
      waste of her time.

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