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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Dec 30, 2010 10:11 AM Flag

    I am hereby revising my price target..$80.00

    $80.00 per share is my new AVNR price target.

    That is Eight Zero point Zero Zero for those whose eyes or minds are failing them regarding what is happening here.

    Why such a radical change? It's simple really. My research..and the math involved.

    My research is saying to me that
    1)it will take about 25,000 customers to justify the current 4.00 and change share price

    2)it will take about 250,000 customers to justify a ten fold increase in the current price per share.

    3)There are about 2 Million PBA suffers in the moderate to extreme category here in the U.S.

    4)There are about 40 Million PBA sufferers worldwide

    5)This is the ONLY FDA approved drug

    6)This illness which is secondary to others like stroke and MS is devastating unto itself to peoples lives. And the more I read about it and understand it's effects..the more i understand that to be the case. I understand why Avnr chose this to go after. Because it is devastating..and an enormous..untreated for the most opportunity.

    7)My 80.00 price target is based on 1/2 million patients in time taking this drug.
    That number is ULTRA conservative still based on both the U.S. and world populations of PBA sufferers.
    In 80.00 price target is so ridiculously low as to be something that I think will still be EASILY hit. 1/2 million is STILL only 25% of the U.S. population of PBA sufferers in the Moderate to EXTREME categories. It factors in nothing about those in lesser categories..and nothing regarding outside the U.S.

    My 80.00 price target is CONSERVATIVE. And that is why I now have modified it to this level.

    Do your OWN due diligence..this is mine. My investing strategy would call for me to sell some shares prior to this target being reached given the number of shares I own.
    I anticipate that would be the case.
    I presently anticipate holding at least half my current position in order to realize this or an even greater per share price.

    I am also of the belief that even this figure may be very low in time.
    It all depends on how many more patients here and around the world the customer is able to bring on board to using this drug.

    Around the world would most likely mean partnerships..meaning sharing in the profits. That will impact revenues. But if we're looking at this kind of revenue potential..there's plenty for Avnr to hit my price target.

    We'll see how my prediction works out.

    I stand by it for now as being very conservative and realistic.

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