Same exact price action - big drop in December and a big bounce in Jan and Feb. Shorts are in trouble, we are moving on low to avg volume. Any news that generates big volume is going to be a LARGE issue for the shorts.
No, you are wrong. The last move last year had little to do with the shorts. It just moved because it moves. It always has. Big volume builds calls, and then shorts and then tutes make money. If there is news then you are correct. There is no news and that is what the realistic, not emotional investor, realizes. Good luck with your faith based investment assumption.
My sense is that the move is due at least in part to tax loss selling at the end of last year. I wasn't sure that would be the case last year due to the expectation of tax increases this year. Also, I thought that this year's tax policy might encourage shorts to cover before the end of last year, but I can see a case being made for them to cover early this year knowing that they wouldn't be paying taxes on their gains until filing their taxes next year. Not to mention that as we gain further visibility going forward, the pps might react before the news as sometime happens.
Additionally, looking at the chart, the pps has moved decisively above the 200-day moving average, while the RSI is nearing 70. Most of last year's trading could be contained in a band from $2.80 to $3.40, with dips below presenting buying opportunities, and breakouts a chance to trade shares bought at lower prices.
I should also mention that this morning I sold a "trading batch" of AVNR shares I bought in mid-November when the pps took a big nosedive. I was looking to take advantage of the tax loss phenomena as I did last year, but began to question whether this tactic would work again this year. At any rate, I cleared over $1 per share, so I'm a happy camper, still with a massive number of AVNR shares. Perhaps I should have posted this under my boobirdofhappiness alias...