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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • marketsite11 marketsite11 Jan 10, 2013 11:52 AM Flag

    Katkin's big oversight

    You say that "Avanir is well on its way to becoming the next leading mid-cap specialty biopharmaceutical company".

    The minimum market cap for a mid cap is $2 billion.

    Using a generous valuation multiplier of 5, that would imply a $400 million run rate. Since WoW script growth has averaged 1% and is declining, I will assume generously again a WoW six tenths of one per cent. I also assume 6% price increases each and every year, and royalties from an EU partnership only gaining significance in the 2016-2017 time frame (again making the generous assumptions that AVNR will get a broad label and a partner who sees value in the relationship)

    Using these assumptions, it will take until June 2017 before AVNR reaches 11,000 weekly scripts, a $400 million run rate, and a $2 billion market cap.

    Did you forget to mention that it probably would take four and a half years to get to a mid cap status based upon your performance so far?

    Maybe you hoped that no one would evaulate that statement?

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    • KK is a very conservative and pragmatic CEO. He does not over promise. If he did, he would committ to revenue projections which he clearly is not comfortable with YET. Good or bad. You decide. Frankly, I favor his style of management. In the long term, I hope and believe he is "under estimating" with and an attitude of positive surprises are always the best approach. Patience and a long term view can be very rewarding.

    • At year end, there were over 70 companies in the Russell Midcap Index with maket caps below $2 billion. The lowest being $317 million.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • horcents Jan 10, 2013 12:27 PM Flag

      I can't fathom that you are as simplistic as you sound. Do you really think KK is basing his prediction on what is happening today? You notice he wrote, "....on its way...", he didn't imply we're there. Is it so tough to imagine that KK has more information than you or gloomy Ray? Short term trends are not important; it would be like predicting the weather in December based on what you're experiencing in June thru Aug....silly, silly boy.

      • 1 Reply to horcents
      • Horce,

        Past performance is pretty much about all anyone has in order to judge future performance.

        For example, how would you rate the chances of success in college for a high school student who made D's and F's?

        Katkins big goals would have more credibility if he would outline the company's strategy of exactly how he plans to get from where the company is now to a mid cap size. Otherwise, he is just expecting shareholders to trust him.

    • I can't believe any of you are STILL trying to have intelligent, rational discussions about the company or it's share price, on this board. What a complete waste of time it's become. You must be a masochist. :)

      But good luck, nonetheless. I always enjoy reading the posts of the three people here willing to try. :)

      • 2 Replies to zacklabster
      • Zack,

        I spent much of December watching the majority of posters on this board spewing filth, and running around hitting and spitting on each other like a mob of dirty neglected children in a junk yard.

        I thought I would try to put out some thoughtful discussion in the last couple of weeks to see if the good posters could regain control over the board, but so far OnlyF, Sarge, Rayonman, Traderalph, Burgoo, Bert and a couple of others have really engaged me.

        It isn't at all necessary to agree with anything I say, but it can be used as a springboard to a higher level of discussion than what we have been seeing lately.

      • Hi Bert!...Jumping around from using all your alias's today huh?...bonehead!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy