*NOTE Rx Growth is Strong* The national PBA commercial aired starting in January! Prescriptions
will likely reflect that in mid-January; also NOTE:
Rx Growth Is Strong, Particularly In The LTC Segment:
Avanir has expanded the institutional sales team to a total of 54 representatives who
are calling on nursing homes only. Additionally, the retail sales team (comprised of
72 representatives) are spending 30% of their time calling LTC facilities as well. We
believe the focus on the institutional setting is the primary driver for the strong
growth in Nuedexta scripts. Avanir expects all newly hired institutional sales
representatives to become fully functional by year-end 2012. Therefore, we estimate
that the uptake in scripts will continue to accelerate in the coming quarters.
""Nuedexta prescriptions are growing well, but poised to accelerate over 1-4 quarters with an increasingly effective institutional force and recently re-targeted retail effort.""
“We are initiating on Avanir with an Overweight rating and $6 price target. Avanir develops drugs for neurological diseases with one product, Nuedexta, approved for pseudobulbar affect (PBA), marketed by possibly one of the largest institutionalized-patient-focused sales forces in the U.S. Its Nuedexta-derived pipeline should lower capital and clinical-failure risk, in our view. Nuedexta prescriptions are growing well, but poised to accelerate over 1-4 quarters with an increasingly effective institutional force and recently re-targeted retail effort. We believe the market under-appreciates Nuedexta's broad applicability that supports use in settings like MS-pain and Alzheimer's agitation, both in PhII trials that we expect to become increasingly visible on enrollment updates and data, fueling AVNR appreciation in later 2013 to 1H'14.”