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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • rim.shot rim.shot Feb 2, 2013 1:17 PM Flag

    Take your pick...

    Either admit that SSRIs have been and are probably still being used first line to effectively treat PBA or if you cannot do that - then admit the treatable market is far smaller than originally thought.

    Take your pick. I think the market of people who need PBA who are currently not responding to the safe, effective, and cheap generic SSRIs is very small.

    It has to be either or a combination of both.

    an even worse case scenario is that most of the prescriptions written are for pain - if that is the case then after 2 years - pain is just not taking off.

    Small market + cheaper, safe, and effective treatment options = bad investment.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • I'll just change your "very small" to "small" and agree with this,
      "I think the market of people who need PBA who are currently not responding to the safe, effective, and cheap generic SSRIs is" "small".

      Scripts are still growing partly because it took Avanir until late 2011, or almost one year after Nuedexta's launch, to incorporate what the experts at their company-sponsored symposium in 2005 in New York told them, i.e. that the great majority of PBA patients are in Long Term Care facilities.

      So the annual run rate of NET Nuedexta revenues is now about $68 million and scripts are still growing slowly, so maybe Nuedexta's peak market share for PBA can still be the $220 million/year
      I have hoped for from before the launch Feb. 7th, 2011. If it winds up being only $175 million, that's still the same "small" ballpark, to me.

      I don't think the possible " even worse case scenario { } that most of the prescriptions written are for pain", is the case, given how drug launches for the first approved drug for a condition usually would go and how sales reps and Avanir advertising can only promote use for PBA and the anecdotal reports we've heard about use have been 90% for PBA , how the company has been talking about how sales and prescriptions issued have been for PBA and how insurance, at least initially in the launch, was geared primarily to limiting their coverage to PBA and not off-label use.

      Rim, the message board quality always rises when you participate. Thanks!

      • 1 Reply to rayonman1
      • Ray,
        Thank you for your insights. I have to say even though I'm not currently trading AVNR it is great to read your posts and stay caught up. It is unfortunate there is a cadre of jerk pumpers here who don't appreciate your insights and obvious medical knowledge.

        I remember way back when I had 15000 shares...discussing QT intervals with you and eventually you got me to understand a few things about that. Then I read Martin's article and it spooked me and I sold all 15000 shares at $4.31 per share. I also remember Andy Baron accusing you of malfeasance till I pointed out your response was after the pharmacists response. Oh what a long journey we've traveled. I have made some decent money on AVNR from trading it. I wish I would've jumped this last time when it was in the low 2's but I was sure it was going to touch the $1.80s....oh well.

        Best of luck to you Ray - and don't let the juvenile jerks here chase you away. I have learned quite a bit from you and OFP and Bert etc....


        Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • SSRI's is a multibillion dollar market with many large pharmas participating and prime for Nuedexta to take a chunk of. Safer and more effective!

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to traderalph21
      • "Safer and more effective!"
        Nuedexta is NOT safer than SSRIs, in fact, Nuedexta is more dangerous than SSRIs and I'm sure the vast majority of physicians and physician opinion leaders would agree with that.
        As the Medical Letter took the time and space to point out, it is INCORRECT to say that Nuedexta is more effective than SSRIs for PBA.
        Of course, generic SSRIs can be purchased for $10 for a 3 month supply compared with about $1,500 for a 3 month supply of Nuedexta. Or $40 per year versus about $6,000 per year.
        Wow, what a price difference!
        Even if SSRIs were not quite as effective as Nuedexta and SSRIs decreased PBA episodes from 40 per week to 6 per week while Nuedexta decreased the episodes from 40 per week to 2 per week , that difference is probably not worth almost $6,000 per year to the patient or to overall health costs via insurance. Even less worth it, considering the significant extra medical risk that comes with Nuedexta versus SSRIs.

    • Rim, your bashes are hilarious!.... ridiculously uneducated ~ But hilarious! When are you going to do some DD on Nuedexta & get the right facts, instead of making all this up? to funny!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy