Big pharma is watching this company closely imo. The recent acceleration of IMS scripts plus price increases is not going unnoticed. Revenue projections for current sales plus potential revenue growth from follow on indications make for a compelling acquisition.
With EU approval imminent it may just be a question of who will move on AVNR first and at what price.
Any bid would obviously truncate the prospects for current shareholders but most would hand over their shares for $6 or $7 and that would be an extremely good value proposition for the acquirer. While interest will likely come from big pharma in the US or EU, I would not rule out a private capital bid.
I'm not sayiing it's going to happen, or at least happen before EU approval, but I would not be surprised if it did.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
SRK, I would guess that we won't get a buyout offer until the generic challengers fold up their tents and slink away. The court case is scheduled for October, if my memory is correct. With sales beginning to sharpen their climb, I would think that the generics will hang in their until all their tactics fail. So, what will the PPS be in October? Another factor is whether KK and the institutions will take an offer. If Avnr can fund its research and it appears that no large scale studies are required for approval of key indications, then KK will buy time to further develop the company. While many promising firms of Avanir's size are acquired, many aren't and go on to build fully integrated mid-cap pharmas. Without some really firm evidence of growth beyond $200 million, I doubt that big pharmas will go out on a limb to acquire Avanir.
The title to your message has a nice ring to it. However, I will be extremely disappointed if AVNR gets taken out at a $6 or $7 bid. That just seems like highway robbery to me. The big question now is: will the ps price continue to move higher as script numbers strengthen. Time will tell. Options anyone??
Your figures are accurate, Ray, on the volume. Average over recent weeks has been around 1.2 million, while yesterday totaled 1.65 million. So a little over 33% more than average. Better than volume of 750K, but still nothing to write home about.
However, I do note that before Rx news came out around 11:00, volume was pretty much negligible. So the day's figure was primarily accumulated after the first 1.5 hours of trading. Also, note that it was a bad day for the overall market. The Dow had its worst loss since late December, the S&P had its worst loss since late November, and the NAS had its worst loss since November 7. When you stack AVNR's 5.5% gain yesterday against that, it's more impressive.
We'll see what happens today. I'd love to see the stock end green on above average volume. Let's see if the market bounces back and gives the stock a bit of a tail wind.