% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • rim.shot rim.shot Feb 11, 2013 11:12 PM Flag

    My Top 5 reasons AVNR's share price has suffered since approval...

    Not in any order...
    1. Far smaller PBA market for those needing medical intervention than anticipated.
    2. Far Cheaper, Safe, and Effective treatments with TCAs and SSRIs
    3. Physician resistance to change from TCAs and SSRIs. Physicians have prescribed these medications for decades and comfortable and familiar with the safety profile - and when they balance out the cost, safety, and effectiveness they probably lean towards TCAs and SSRIs for a first line treatment option.
    4. Management building a sales force from scratch and launching. It is extremely challenging for a small biotech to launch a drug. Big Pharma can just roll one drug like N into an existing sales force. AVNR probably should have sold to a large pharma shortly after approval to maximize shareholder value if that opportunity was available at the time.
    5. Dilution. AVNR has gone from Approximately 85M shares around approval to around 135M shares now - in addition to a $30M high interest rate debt financing.

    There is also the matter of a generic threat. AVNR is currently involved in litigation against 4 generic manufacturers and the outcome is uncertain - like all litigation.

    I would also caution that the EU is not the slam dunk here many think it is. N could get rejected or with a restrictive label. Just because a drug gets approved by the FDA doesn't mean the EU will follow - See VVUS.

    These are my opinions in studying AVNR as to why the share price has been a disappointment - I may be right or I may be wrong - I just prefer to logically try to figure why the share price is where it is.
    Before investing in any risky biotechs you really need to understand all angles.

    Best of Luck!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
16.960.00(0.00%)Jan 12 3:59 PMEST