Not in any order...
1. Far smaller PBA market for those needing medical intervention than anticipated.
2. Far Cheaper, Safe, and Effective treatments with TCAs and SSRIs
3. Physician resistance to change from TCAs and SSRIs. Physicians have prescribed these medications for decades and comfortable and familiar with the safety profile - and when they balance out the cost, safety, and effectiveness they probably lean towards TCAs and SSRIs for a first line treatment option.
4. Management building a sales force from scratch and launching. It is extremely challenging for a small biotech to launch a drug. Big Pharma can just roll one drug like N into an existing sales force. AVNR probably should have sold to a large pharma shortly after approval to maximize shareholder value if that opportunity was available at the time.
5. Dilution. AVNR has gone from Approximately 85M shares around approval to around 135M shares now - in addition to a $30M high interest rate debt financing.
There is also the matter of a generic threat. AVNR is currently involved in litigation against 4 generic manufacturers and the outcome is uncertain - like all litigation.
I would also caution that the EU is not the slam dunk here many think it is. N could get rejected or with a restrictive label. Just because a drug gets approved by the FDA doesn't mean the EU will follow - See VVUS.
These are my opinions in studying AVNR as to why the share price has been a disappointment - I may be right or I may be wrong - I just prefer to logically try to figure why the share price is where it is.
Before investing in any risky biotechs you really need to understand all angles.
Best of Luck!
I know it is hard to believe as a basher, but for some people the stock is up in value and not in the toilet. If you bought at the low this year, you are up over 30%. This stock seems to be in a trading range of $2.70 to $3.20 right now. If you are in the mood to trade the stock, you could probably make some money right now.
I guess at the time of approval, Wall Street was buying Avanir's 800-900% increase in its estimates of how many PBA patients there were and how doctors knew about PBA and how they were likely to use a new medicine for PBA and the sycophantic analysts who also unquestioningly accepted Avanir's hype and made commensurate overly high estimates.
Then the CEO sold about $1 million worth of stock and then there was a financing and then the embarrassing weekly sales numbers began to dribble in.
Then the analysts made their corresponding large decreases in expected revenues and the stock price went down further, as I recall.
Then Mr. Shkreli's article with its false claim that Avanir's main patent was dated 7/2005 when it was much before that came out and the stock price tanked some more.
Then the ANDA patent challenges came out
That's the way I recall it, at least.
mr winkles, jean, carney, mikie, horsemanure....Your thoughts? What are your theories why the share price has been in the toilet the last 2.5yrs? Gotta be something? A big crazy short conspiracy???
Since the price is climbing - that of course means the carney is here fervently pumping again. I wonder why he thinks this investment has stunk so bad since approval and his 24/7 circus carney pumping show?