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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Feb 12, 2013 2:13 PM Flag

    Zero 3000/wk in less than 24 months

    Zero revenues to almost 80 million run rate in less than 24 mos.

    Rimjob characterizes that as a failure.

    He's spent too many days clerking at some deli counter i think to ever understand business.

    And now..what's next? The EU and it's market that is 1 1/2 times the size of the U.S.
    Commercials that might bring about massive script growth over the years.
    Many other uses for this drug over the years.

    DDEX patent life until 2030.

    Just think..Rim will be graduating the 8th grade by then.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • "I'm using calender year 2011.

      200,000 patients (on average)

      Price per share for 2011..I think we'll hit close to 48.00 by the end of the year.

      I arrive at that based on the 300,000 patients figure and using the formula of 25k patients = 4.00 per share. I'm using the 300k figure instead of 200k because by years end I think we'll be ramped up to that number of patients and the market will be assigning a revenue/eps/per share price compatible with that growth.

      Bottom prediction for calender year 2011 is
      revenues..about 666 Million and a pps of 48.00 for the high by years end.

      Moving into 2012 and beyond..adjust it upwards towards my 80.00 per share target price."

      Do you think that someone who said the above (in January, 2011) could now be claiming that $80 million per year after two years is acceptable? Or the big deal that that person keeps claiming it to be?

      Just curious.

    • I was talking about how rotten the share price had performed - even through your carnival barking for 2.5yrs...calling for $30, $80, $100, $250, etc...price targets.

      Who cares about all your garbage...when I invest in stocks I want to see them go up. What is your theory on why the share price has cratered since approval?

      • 1 Reply to rim.shot
      • Rimjob, you seem lost on one of the key points of investing.
        I don't offer up theories on why a stock is at any given price at any given time.

        Instead...I determine for myself what the company and it's prospects are and what I might expect out of it as an investment over time. Take for example your endless ranting over the last couple of years. You told us to be worried about patents...congress...and PBA even being real while i totally disagreed with you on every point. Who was right? It certainly wasn't you. In that same timeframe Avnr has gone on to see most quarters of growth at or approaching 30% per quarter. And meanwhile you just continue to throw darts at guessing which way the stock price will go. It's been my observation that you are VERY bad at it as i've said most people will be who try to trade and short term time the market. But go on guessing apparently hoping that someday you get it right.

        And so, now we are. A stock who's scripts have gone from zero to 3000 per wk. and you continue to rant on about how it isn't "worth" it's current price. I would beg to differ and say that Avnr has simply done everything right and i believe the fair value of the stock is significantly higher than it currently trades at. Stocks reach those points rim..which is what makes investing what it is. An opportunity to find the future winners. After all..if that were'n't the case then IBM when it was 10.00 share wouldn't be 200 today...a point i know well because i was buying IBM at 10.00 for fundamentally the same reasons...I saw it as a tremendous value and very oversold.

        You'll pardon my saying so but when it comes to investing and perhaps life in seem extremely stressed out. Investing is a years long and even decades long process rim. I've been at this now for 35 years and each year has taught me that more and more. And it's also taught me repeatedly to stick with my own intuitions and reasons for having bought something in the first place. It's why when the gulf oil was washing up on the shores I was buying all the BP i could at 27 while the whole world was running from it. It's why when ALU was at 94 cents and Goldman hated it..moodys hated it..bernstein hated it...Citi hated it..wilkison hated it...and OFP was warning me about buying and averaging down...i was doing the exact opposite.
        and now I and my massive position i accumulated are up a lot..and they aren't.

        Rim, i have spoken over and over about some of the key points of investing. Do your homework..know what it is you own...have faith and conviction in your in averages.....and have PATIENCE.

        Every day or week or month or quarter with avnr isn't going to be perfect. Nothing in life is that.
        I've expressed my views as to why i think the recent past has seen the weakness it has..and I think i'm right about that. I've also expressed why i think the recent IMS numbers that everyone did an about face on just might be better than people think. As is often the case..i think reality exists somewhere in between the two points of view. Rim, what i see with avnr is this.
        17 YEARS of patent exclusivity. Numerous other uses like pain and all the other big indications we've heard about. How many more stories do you have to hear to know how well this drug works? It works wonders rim. In a months time we'll have chmp recommendation...another couple mos..EU approval and what i believe will be a broad label. We'll have a partnership and a lot of upfront money and a good deal on a revenue split. And we'll have 17 years to enjoy all the growth that will be had by being in this investment.

        Rim...seriously.think about this. Is this stock worth 2.80 and change with all that?


        You silly man you.

        Of course it is.


        Sentiment: Strong Buy