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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Mar 26, 2013 4:45 PM Flag

    Q2 results.....

    Although we have a couple of weeks left in the quarter It's looking to me like we're going to be seeing a VERY strong report. In fact, i'm coming up with an almost 25% growth rate for the quarter. I'm going to keep my expectations however back down around 20% because last quarter there seems to have been some product sold into the channel that may have carried over to this quarters sales. In any event...20% should add up to a VERY solid beat to expectations in terms of revenues and cash burn. As for the pullback the last few days...what can one say except the company CONTINUES to do an outstanding job in terms of growth of this product. While there's been a minor delay in terms of the EU it's only 1 month and by July we should be fully approved and up and running. And, at the rate we're on now...Break even should happen by around October to November at the VERY latest. I can't then stress enough it's then all about EARNINGS and at our growth rate we very well could see 70 cents next year. And that equals a 14.00 stock price even by very conservative price to earnings standards.

    What Avnr needs to do is EXACTLY what they're doing. They're doing an outstanding job in keeping their eyes on the ball. We shareholders need to support them and simpy have patience to let them accomplish what they're going to accomplish.

    In any event...20% + for the quarter IMO.

    Another great quarter in Avnr history.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • you reduced your expectations for the quarter from 20-25% growth to only 6%. What could possibly caused such a DRAMATIC drop in your growth "analysis" over the course of only 2 weeks including one that itself had 10% growth? (that question was rhetorical, we all know the answer).

      I'm sure your information about the inventory channel stocking comes from the same source.

      • 2 Replies to onlyfactsplease
      • Growth in REAL terms in terms of pcounts from Dec 31st to last week has been 15.3% and so I did NOT REDUCE my expectations from 20% to 6% and so there was NO DRAMATIC DROP in my expectations as you are falsely trying to portray like you ALWAYS do to members of this yahoo board. AND, as far as the quarters numbers go..there is STILL one weeks results to see and so we could STILL hit the 20% level in REAL TERMS of growth. As for the 6% number that is based on ANALYSTS consensus revenue growth which of course might not ALWAYS match the REAL TERM growth in pill counts ...depending on when the GROWTH actually occurs in any given quarter.

        I REALIZE you and the short bashers have been DESPERATELY attempting to portray the quarter as being a lousy one and HOPING beyond hope that REAL TERM PCOUNT growth STAYED at ONLY didn't get your wish..did you? In fact..we didn't hear a PEEP out of you regarding the huge...monsterous...increase in pcounts last week.

        And so why don't you take your SCAMMING ...Morphing self back to the drawing board and figure out where and HOW the 10% INFLATIONARY growth suddenly appeared and report back to us.


        And while you're at it..take that scammer former MM aka Bert Wilkison along with you.



        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • "... the same source."

        That would be his poop chute, the same place he pulls most everything from, especially anything math-related.

        Way to catch the flip-flop. Almost as thrilling as his ever-changing break-even dates. :)

    • "I can't then stress enough it's then all about EARNINGS and at our growth rate we very well could see 70 cents next year."
      I can't stress enough to eschew fantasy.
      The seven analysts who have their probably overly rosy estimates in have a consensus of a LOSS of 5 cents per share for the Fiscal Year ending 9/30/2014 on revenues of about $122 million.
      The most rosy analyst has a profit of 19 cents per share for FY end 9/30/14 and the least rosy analyst has a loss of 25 cents per share.

    • As a start you might DEFINE what you mean by growth THEN let the board help you with estimating how many pills will be sold in Q2 THEN do some actual MATH. If you get that far you should see that 20% growth for any relevant measure is a pipe dream.

      One additional hint...analyst consensus estimates for net revenue are ~$17.5M vs. ~16.5M last Q (i.e. 6% growth). If you do the above math you will see getting to even ~$17.5M will take some heroics.

      • 2 Replies to onlyfactsplease
      • Well when Traderclown does math, he does clown math! We all know by now he can not do simple math or for that matter any math. Makes me laugh everytime I see his predictions about break even time after time. He still is not close and then to think this POS of a Co. will do 70 cents next year is even further off. LMFAO!!!!

      • Aren't you the same clown who told me about analysts consensus sell recommendations of ALU at 98 cents? LOL! 80% to the upside later...why didn't we hear anymore from you and goldman?

        And thanks for your offer of "help". But..having read your Seeking alpha novel on N again..i think i'll pass. BTW...have you changed your views on Alz patients and N?


        Sentiment: Strong Buy