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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Apr 24, 2013 9:23 AM Flag

    T minus 2 days

    and counting.

    Well folks. In a couple of days we should know the EU outcome. Or, at least the CHMP portion of it. I personally believe the odds of Avnr gaining broad label approval are VERY good. This company has executed flawlessly on literally every facet of this drug approval and rollout process and I believe that will continue on with this as well. The fact that the FDA approved it that way I think adds a lot to this and ultimately it would come down to the question what if they DIDN'T approve it that way? Do they say to Avnr..we want more studies done of enhanced cough medicine? What i mean by that is i think the safety profile of this drug and these ingredients...the literally decades they've been on the market and how well they're known and understood will be the tipping point if one needs to be added. What is ALSO added however is the many thousands of other patients now ON this drug FOR these other conditions with enormous success stories being told. I just don't see this adding up to anything but a clear victory for Avnr in the EU as well.

    BUT..i will say this. I never look at anything in terms of 100% certainty and so the best odds i would place on this would be 95/5. But i do think we're at that 95% level. Approval is going to mean a lot. Perhaps a partnership or even a buyout. If full approval comes in July then we very well could have this drug on the market in August and contributing to even an Aug. or Sept. breakeven. And this is why i believe my piil count b/e estimate is correct because whether one wants to argue b/e is at 100M or 110M..whether there's a price increase or not...the EU and it's associated sales can be the tipping point as it's not pill counts we'll be looking at ..but rather INCOME like we do from Abreva..a point which simply escapes our resident board accountants...OFP and Ray. It's like a price increase. One doesn't NEED it to be 270k if you have a 7% price increase. Maybe they'll get this in time. In any event...GL to longs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Still waiting for an answer, lol.

      This might get you to respond - who posted the following quotes?

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      Sound familiar?

    • You keep being asked this, but you never answer. I'll try again. If you thought they'd do $666 million in revenues for 2011 (you said this in January of 2011), and they're on track to do (if we're extremely lucky) perhaps 1/6 of that amount for 2013, how can you say they have "executed flawlessly on literally every facet of this drug approval and rollout process..." ?

      Now you'll tell me I'm Bert, that I stalk you and everything else, EXCEPT a logical answer to the glaring incongruity of your statements. Go ahead, prove me wrong, Pumpstoxx.

    • You just refuse to acknowledge you ever made that statement about the $666 million. It's funny to watch, how every time someone brings it up, you totally ignore it. I guess it's because even you can see how silly and stupid it was to ever have made it.

      You're a buffoon.