"Let's say we open up the EU ourselves and do NOTHING MORE than we've done here.."
Stop right there (at the beginning :-)
because the EU will not be resulting in anywhere close to the sales in the U.S.
The analysts point out they expect the European price to be about 50% of the U.S. price, like other neurologic drugs.
Also, European health care systems are not big on paying for $3,600 per year drug when a $40 per year SSRI generic may well do the same job.
Also, Avanir is not at all suited to going into Europe alone. Avanir themselves are looking for a European partner and U.S. companies don't look for partners to pay them a 15% royalty on sales and a modest upfront license payment, leaving all the other money to the partner, unless the U.S. company would make even less on their own.