DO the math...
current production is 13000-13500 boe 10000 barrels of oil a day and 3000-3500 boe dry gas.
rev on that is approx 450 million annually generating over 250 million in positive cashflow
in nevt 6-8 weeks, add 3000 Barrels of oil a day from the rest of Conoco aquisition, 2000 barrels of oil a day from 2nd bacchus well
third bacchus well adds 2000 barrel of oil a day plus 7000 boe from rochelle
year end 25000-27000 boe a day over 7000 million in annual rev and over 450 million in cashflow.
Mostly all oil producition is low decline and requires very little cap ex to maintain a flat production for the next 4-5 years.
We have no debt due for years out, hedges in place, opportunty in dry gas when it recovers and the Heath oil Shale which could be a huge money maker...
Do the math over 10$ a share in fcf being redeployed every year, compounding, add value, 2-3 years out if we have not been bought out, 40-50$ a share very very reasonable...WE HAVE TURNS THE CORNER. In some ways i hope we sell off so i can add more knowing the future is so bright.
I too am scratching my head about the big sell off, could be more selling by the Knucklehead partners...then again, from the recetn announcement I note this .. "pursuant to which the Pledgor pledged cash to secure a letter of credit issued by the LC Provider for Endeavour UK's account in the amount of approximately �77 million (approximately $120 million as of May 31, 2012). The letter of credit secures Endeavour UK's decommissioning obligations for the Alba field until 2014." This was written to confuse poor shmucks like me and it did just that...are they trying to say that original decommish costs were to be $77million but now are $120m? I have to think that resolving the decommish issue in order to close Alba had to cost us something...maybe it was an added cost of $43m????? thoughts anyone?
plus Heath oil well are proving up with offset operators, ips in the 150-300 range, very economic at 2.5-3 a well.
who cares in the near term, Park your cash in ENd at these levels, walk away and in a year you'll be very happy or i ll eat my hat. ;O)
go to the sec look at the filings there purchase prices, do the math, you can see that they are way down and in the hedge fund industry when you severely under preform people cashout, it becomes a waterfall effect and q2 ends in 2 weeks to file dedemptions.
There are lots of sites that show insider trading in may they dumped all the convertables, now stock, it artifical this downdraft...we are producting at least 10k barrels of oil a day currently that has breant pricing and low cap ex and low decline...do the math at 8.5 or 9$ a share then with 2 more bacchus and Rochelle....this is crazy, but i like it because i increased my position by 50% today below 8.50 I was waiting for this type of pull back after alba announcement....down side 2$ maybe but upside 20$...jeez you won't find a better risk reward stock that has no chance of a liquidity problem. (Barring a black swan event)
YOU had better do the math and do it, over. Your facts are wrong starting with your figure for current production of 13,000/day.
Total output from all three Baachus wells, once on line, is estimated to be 4,500/day.
Rochelle is estimated to produce some this year and coupled with Alba the production run rate is estimated to be roughly 11.8moe/d.
Let's have that all take place before you start projecting annual revenues of $7000 million.
Next year is eons away given the record of this company meeting forecasts.
I'm a bull on this stock, too. I'm also a realist.
Alright i am game lets say its your way, then rev is aprox 650 million annually and fcf 450 million, anyway you cut it we are extremely undervalued by 3x on fcf,nav, pe....and fcf is easily sustained from hedges and linited maint. cap spend. Thank you for calling me back to earth. lol. all my best sir