Since the Yahoo MB is quiet I have kept an eye on the Avanza discussions.
Sentiment over there is more or less management hostile and seems like everybody is waiting for the partnership PR which could/should be management's salvation and shoot the SP up. Seems like most investors (including me) are stuck with this thing - you don't want to sell because the PR and other possible good news are around the corner, yet it's bitter to watch and pass by those opportunities that overall market has offered and offers almost daily. A situation that totally sucks!
I got two "life-defining" questions.
1) To justify holding Epicept, how much the SP has to rise when the partnership is announced and what level we will be trading weeks/months between PR and first sales results? Depends on agreement terms would be the diplomatic answer but I would tie the answer with next question.
2) Which is more significant news, getting product approved or getting distributor for approved product? I think getting product approved.
No doubt that the approval news was released in very difficult market situation but the fact is that SP didn't took off like it should have. Yes, back then Epicept was basically out of cash and Merryl was dumping lots of shares in Sweden and so on but still we're face down in the mud. Even the very good NP-1 results earlier this year didn't help much. So why should the SP rise significantly (for example 30-50%) after partnership PR? We'll have a little bit better understanding of possible future earnings and that's it. Another 6-9 months of waiting first results and bashing JT & Co.
Another angle: Lets assume it will be a really really good contract for Epicept. Very little upfront payment or non like JT mentioned few weeks ago but with relatively good royalty. Over Avanza and probably at Yahoo MB too there have been previously numbers like 20-30% royalty or so. So a really, really good royalty would be something over 30% (just an assumption). Even if the contract will be a really good one I'm afraid we investors will be pretty much in the same situation we are right now. SP will do some 30% jump and end the day some 10-15% in green. Dropping little by little every day that follows. Why? Because it seems that lot of investors will sell the news to get out of this stock (accepting bigger or smaller loss, some even profit and killing that little momentum we'll have). Probably those who exit that day will be back some months later just before first sales result are starting to come in.
There has been talk that already this summer german and UK patients will get the drug but I'd better expect it to happen in the end of 09 or beginning of 10. Just a hunch considering how things have developed so far.