The long interview have some positive and some negative news. I have not read the news carefully enough, due to a kindergarten or what ever my house have been the last hours.
Anyways, neg first: NP-1-deal have not yet reached the expected 20-30 million USD, so management see a risk of a postponment of the treaty to reach that goal. (the phase IIb-results from the pain in cancer trial ending this summer is not mentioned)
Positive news: Ceplene implementation is going better than anticipated. At least 4 of the big 5 countries in the EU will have been launched at this year, covering 70% of the EU-demand for the medicin. Talley gives Meda credit for this.
Epicept is n o t seeking partners for the US market but Talley tells us there are several CO giving them bids on that market. I f there is a fair bid, it will be concidered.
Talley states that the EU and the US markets peak is 200 million USD each for Ceplene.
Talley stressed that there is a regulatory process to consider for both Japan and China. Australia should come first.
Talley repeats familliar things about the FDA application Q1 fast track, if not Q2. "But we fill all the criteria for fast track".
Financials: cash is out in the shift of July/August. "We are looking at several solutions" At the end of the year there will be some milestones and royalty. The burn-rate is (still) 1.6 million/month.
Just a personal interpretation:
This interview is given the day before Azixa. The essential message is to show that there is a need for a larger take here.
Money from Ceplene is rolling in but that is not sufficient, not yet. This carpet of info is rolled out for a reason, to understand the next move.
As before, the positive words about our partner and the, unnecessary news about the current NP-1- bids, paves the way for a release later on. If I have got it right, you should own a couple of shares when that release is out.
These figures is a proposal from a post on www.avanza.se about the two markets yet launched, GB and Germany. Add France and Italy later this year, some 120 million inhabitants gross, using the same typ of calculation.
So what we have is a fast implementation. After that we do want to see the sales out there in the clinics.
"Tittar vi på UK och Tyskland kan det se ut så här om ett par år:
Storbritannien Antal patienter: 2 641 Peak sale: 2 113 (80% av patienterna) Antal patienter som blir aktuella: 1 109 (52,50%) Pris: 35 333 USD Medas intäkt: 39 192 070 Epicepts intäkt: 9 014 176 (med en royalty mellan 20 och 25 procent)
Tyskland Antal patienter: 3 612 Peak sale: 2 890 Antal patienter som blir aktuella: 1 517 (52,50%) Pris: 35 333 Medas intäkt: 53 601 574 Epicepts intäkt: 12 328 362 (med en royalty mellan 20 och 25 procent)
Ovan ger drygt 21 miljoner usd vid peaksale årligen. Notera även att ovan länder räcker för att nå samtliga milstolpar minus några miljoner vilket ger Epicept ytterligare 30 miljoner usd. Om två till tre år är vi där skulle jag tro. Övriga läkemedel i pipelinen värderas till noll usd som Pfenix skrev.
A remark to my interpretation in the post above: The news from yesterday have several recievers: the stockholders, but also, of course possible partners.
Essentially the message is:" Everything is for sale to the right price!"
Again, why remind a l l possible recievers of the "news" about that n o w?
Talley is getting bids for NP-1 but none including the 20 Mil upfront he wants. That tells me that either Talley is failing to show the value of the product or that he does not have a good handle on the reality of the product and the market. Seems like a repeat of the Ceplene negotiations where we had to settle for an agreement with 5 Mil up front after year and a half of negotiations. A NP-1 deal with 5 Mil up front today is much better than a deal with 5 Mil upfront next year!
But these delays are no pain of Talley's skin: he still keeps getting his fat salary and bonuses while we shareholders loose out!
I also own stock in AVII: the board there has fired two CEOs in the last 4 years, both of them far more competent than Talley (their share price is over one dollar after a low of 50 cents without any R/S). And our board?
You have no idea how frustrated I am getting at this company! Yes, Ceplene will start generating revenues, yes we have the FDA application, etc. etc. but everything takes two-three times what I reasonably expect, and in the mean time we get diluted over and over!
There are resons to get excited. And, if one feels like, pissed of.
Ceplene is going the opposite way of all the shorters wishes on this board. Let's hear what we have tomorrow about Azixa.
If you ask me, I do not think Talley have a problem showing (Of that I do not know nothing, of course.)the value of NP-1. My suggestion is there is a logic to wait for the news from the phase IIb trial to be used. Last patient enrolled late Q2. That is a 4-5 million patient potential. PHN is some 200 000.
But, is that reason to obvious? The more interesting question, as I see it, is why Talley tells u s the story about NP-1. N o w.
One could say that it is definitly not for financing purpose. My point, testing the contrary, is that it is. Next move is big and "necessary". And a relief for the angry :-) shareholders.