The big rush to new TVS will come in 5 to 10 years when OLED sets are perfected and reach mass market. They are thinner, lighter, and more energy efficient than either LCD or plasma. This switch to digital broadcasting in 2009 is yet another example of a government fiasco with their ludicrous $40 coupon program. These silly coupons were SUPPOSED to supply poor people with free access to the new digital signals. Instead, once retailers found out the coupons were being issued they jacked up the prices on all DTV boxes so NONE retail for less than $20 above coupon value. Furthermore, the coupons are set to expire a few MONTHS after being issued, and the converter boxes with the best features will not be available AT ALL untill after the coupons expire.
Lastly, consumer electronics is a notoriously low margin game, and only morons with low credit scores buy any large ticket items at retail where they have to pay sales tax. Smart, creditworthy folks may shop in store, but they BUY ONLINE, and not from BEST BUY or anyone else who charges tax. BEST BUY sales may look good on the surface, but as increasing percentages of their deadbeat consumer receivables become writeoffs, the stock will suffer big time.
It simply makes no sense to sell merchandise from a storefront with its large fixed costs (rent, utilities, staff, insurance, security, etc) when your competitors are selling the same items online for lower prices with a fraction of your overhead and still seeing larger margins.
If you are looking for an entry point, then anything under $44 is good for BBY. I would not buy in at a penny over. Wait until after the announcement tomorrow and see where it heads, and you will be rewarded. Best Buy is the segment leader, and will recover any losses in a very short time, relatively speaking.
The difference for BBY is not the amount of storefronts, but the amount of service they are able to provide. Ultimately, it becomes more profitable for them to sell and provide services through many locations. Add to that the fact that they are growing globally, and you begin to understand why this company is still a good growth vehicle.
Don't forget Circuit City is the pits, and BBY now carries the iPhone, and Apple products. People will buy FP TV's @ BBy because they will be worried about getting something that will be compatible in 09' even if they have cable/dish etc. Next Oil is $97/Bar. Consumer will feel like they have more to spend. Also I am guessing that during this recession in lieu of travel, too much$$ people bought their new FP TV so they can sit home and feel good. Either spend $5oo just in gas going away for a weekend, or a new TV/Ipod/Phone/etc. Rememeber, no CompUSA this year, and CC screwed last year, no Tweeters to speak of, people will go to BBY, more commercials, and better branding. Buy now, sell @ 58-60, then next summer buy in again in 40 range. I got in @ 37.