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Toll Brothers Inc. Message Board

  • imaginejml Jun 21, 2013 7:07 AM Flag

    Volume yesterday in TOL was tied for the highest vol in 52 weeks. It matched exactly what happened in December, another huge red day,

    If there's any similiarity to December, that began the assent from $30 to $38. Maybe yesterday was some type of capitulation, following a 20% decline in one month. If not, its touched $30 4 times over 52 weeks, so I hope its the floor for TOL.

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    • good observations

      I noticed that the general market didn't have the usual short covering "rally" at the end of the day....I'm thinking brief dead cat bounce then another leg down

      the fed's printing presses are what took toll and the rest of the market to such over valued levels, the fed will take it all back down.......trouble for the small fish is that they usually over shoot

      toll is still too pricey even after a 20% drop......they've come from $18 bills selling for $39 to $ 18 bills "marked down" to $32.......while some will no doubt consider this a "bargain hunting opportunity", I still call it "over priced $18 bills"

      and the bad news express (investor owned media) is just getting started

      I think there's more iceberg under this tip

      • 3 Replies to primemeridian
      • imaginejml Jun 21, 2013 9:04 AM Flag

        Some good points, but TOL traded in the $18 range from 2007 - 2012, over the entire financial crisis and recession, where nothing was being built.

        Prior to when the housing boom began in 2000, TOL did trade at lower levels, but home construction was not the same thing as it was during the boom period up to 2007, where people wanted (and still now seek out) newer, larger, better houses, with all of todays amenities/features that older houses do not have.

        The custom market, which TOL excels in, merits something more. People with money are not looking backward. They want it and they are beginning to build it again. Also, materials pricing is going down, especially lumber, and this adds to better margins.

        People freaked out the last month, and maybe TOL is now at more normal levels, but there is now way it goes back to $18 unless the world craters again - which is a possibility.

      • Historically Toll is a $10 stock.

        Sentiment: Sell

31.25+0.35(+1.13%)Aug 30 4:05 PMEDT