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Toll Brothers Inc. Message Board

  • sage2123 sage2123 Jun 21, 2013 10:25 AM Flag


    Never did like the things.

    There was a time when portfolio insurance guaranteed that events like Black Monday would never happen. Then Black Monday happened precisely due to portfolio insurance. Some years later, the credit-driven housing boom made modeling of declining home prices at rating agencies (and everywhere else) redundant. Then the (first) housing and credit bubble popped leading to the biggest housing market crash in US history. Fast forward to today, when ETFs were supposed to be the "greatest thing since sliced bread" and providing an ultra-low cost alternative to mutual fund and other market exposure "for the people", were supposed to revolutionize investing. Until days like yesterday. To wit from the FT: "The losses for ETFs today were far beyond what the most sophisticated financial risk models could have predicated for worst-case scenarios," said Bryce James, president of Smart Portfolio, which provides ETF asset allocation models.

    Turns out yet another cost-cutting, computerized contraption was only as strong as its weakest link: which in this case turned out to be a completely unexpected, Bernanke-driven bond market sell off, which led to unprecedented stress in the $2 trillion ETF industry.

    Sentiment: Sell

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