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Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Message Board

  • jpomper jpomper Jan 16, 2013 5:14 AM Flag

    MFG bottomed in now10 week, is correcting the first rally phase

    As I suggested on dec27,
    the longterm (estimated 5-8 month long) yen downward momentum against usd and eur
    is in a shortterm correction phase,
    with Nikkei and MFG also correcting.

    I think the 89.5 intermediate top is in, and we are in a MILD type correction phase;
    my best guess is 87.0 as bottom, but 86.0 is a good second possibility for bottom of the corrective wave.
    Timewise the yen correction will look best if it lasts for 10 more days, until end of January.
    The downward speed should lose its momentum every day.

    After the correction bottom is in,
    we should expect the yen to continue its long way toward 120-125 usd/yen target in the fall.

    Anyways, MFG will restart its rally in 2 weeks,
    I expect it to bottom $3.5-$3.7 range,
    and continue toward $9-10 target price from 1.february.

    Good luck.

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    • Well, the correction is the MILD type, as expected.
      With the BOJ meeting and press release out of the way, with a formula just az expected,
      the BOJ is on the side of a much weaker yen: the target is 2% inflation.
      And to be able to achive it, BOJ must inject a lot, a LOT of money into the banks first,
      and thru them into the economy. Banks, brokers will benefit immensely

      From the usd/yen 90.2 top, the yen corrected to 88.0 so far,
      as the bottom of correction;
      actually I expected to correct to 87.0.
      Since the yen is already trying to bottom at 88.70, and
      all weak shorts should get in to short position again this weeek,
      this target is raised to 88.0.

      The long, stable yen depreciation is on the way.
      No fundamental obstacles anywhere.

      Jump in, buy MFG, this is the last good entry point up.
      Next target $7.0-7.5 for MFG, no serious resistance ahead.
      Hold it tight.

      • 1 Reply to jpomper
      • 1)The downward average speed of yen/usd depreciation is, after 11 weeks rally,
        cca. 1.0% per week.
        This means that if BOJ can keep this rate stable, not allow an exponentially accelerating form, but keep it trending linear, and is willing to keep balance with slight open-market operations, then in 6 months the yen might depreciate 25-30%. This might be sustainable for long time.

        2)The average speed is average.
        Usually, at least in the last 4 weeks, we have a simple inta-week swing.
        the yen gains slightly Mnday and Tuesday, followed by fast drop in the last 3 days of the week.

        3)The NIkkei rally's average speed is 1.1%/week This is sustainable for quite a long time.
        Intar-week, NIKKEI swings follows the yen swings.

        So, if you plan to play this swings, go long Nikkei on Tuesdays at close and exit Fridays at close.

        Anyway, the japan stokmarket rally, NIKKEI, should last at least 6 months, and will gain 30-40%, in average.

        4) MFG averagee speed after 11 weeks is 1.7% / week, for now.
        This will bring a minimum of 50% more gain, in 6 months.

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