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Simon Property Group Inc. Message Board

  • thrasherterry thrasherterry Feb 8, 2008 2:03 PM Flag

    todays drop

    2 pm and i noticed a major drop for spg. what has changed in two weeks. down 3 points today .
    i see no new annmts.

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    • It seems to me that all the REITs are down today - But SPG a bit more, percentage wise.

      Even HRP with a 10% Dividend and near a 52 week low is down today.

      Then again, who knows - Monday will another day.

      Have a Great Weekend - Watch The Pro-Bowl or whatever.


      • 1 Reply to saltynacho
      • its the market . thats the bottom line. spg is now below its 50 day avg and the market is tanking .
        still i recommend picking up a position ( small but beginning one) here.
        how low , no one knows. no one predicts on a consistent basis the day to day or short term market .
        my long term money is just sitting at Schwab. i am only in about 15% at this point. ( china stocks) but am picking up some spg.
        monto gave me edd and i like the 12% return.
        i play the market short term because i am addicted to the action. its that or atlantic city at the blackjack tables

    • Did you also get worried when SPG went from mid-70s to 90 in a few weeks and wonder what had changed during that period?

      Face it. This is a trader's market but the general direction is DOWN. I watched my SRS go from 140 to 95 and now I'm going to watch it go right back up again. Same with SKF which I kept buying all the way down to 95 and have been rewarded with some upward movement since.

      I laugh (even as my account shrinks) when the financial and housing sectors rise like our problems are all over. 2008 will make 2007 seem like a bull year. I don't think it'll be until 2009 when the stock markets stabilize. Housing will bottom out a year or two later. 2010 will be a great time to have a ton of cash (assuming the dollar hasn't cratered by then) and have one's pick of real estate or stock market investments at killer prices.

      That's when you'll be hearing Cramer and other CNBC shills shouting about how lousy an investment real estate is, and how depressing the stock market is which keeps flatlining. That's when you buy. I think Bob PissOnMe is finally starting to "get it". I'm talking $2 trillion in housing losses, baby, before this thing is all done and dusted.

      It's all cyclical, folks. All asset classes are cyclical and revert to the trendline. Too bad some folks think we should prohibit the downside of the cycle and only have the upside.

      Hillary is the worst culprit. 90-day "moratorium" on foreclosures and 5-year interest rate freeze. BWAHAHAHAHA! Why stop there. Why not have a 5-year moratorium and 30-year rate freeze? And the Republicans? Why only $1200 per family? Surely we'd get a much bigger stimulus if you made it $12000 or so?

      The only politician who has any idea of the mess we are in (and how to extricate ourselves from it) is Ron Paul. Sadly, he has been marginalized both by the media and by his own party.

      - k

    • Sentiment drives stock prices in the short term as much as fundamentals drive it in the long-term, regardless of what some people on this board may think (e.g. bear9). My take FWIW:

      - We are at an all-time peak in commercial real estate and things cannot go up in a straight line without some pull-back.

      - this stock is only yielding 4.2% divi, and you can get 6% in 99.97% secure muni funds (yes bear9 every once in a while I have a real number)

      - consumer spending is declining and anyone who thinks this is not the case has their head in the's happening and will for at least the next with it....the perception is that REIT's which have their --entire-- asset bag in malls will feel this consumer pull-back eventually....duh!

      - since commercial real estate has a much longer development cycle than residential (more permits, longer financing due diligence, more design work, larger pool of materials, etc.) they have many projects under way from 2005 and 2006 when things looked so damn rosey that they went kinda nuts on the expansion. These "empty" malls will need debt servicing. With an occupancy rate of 93% currently, what will it be in 6 months as these new malls come on-line and retailers are holding back on new stores....hmmmm? I would imagine each percent of unsused space translates quite largely to FFO reduction....hmmmm? Can you say reduced dividend possibly?

      Take it or leave it, SPG is headed down throughout this year, and will certainly go below it's 52 week low of 72. Maybe not mod 40's at end of year like I predicted, but I will remain at my prediction. Why not sell now and buy back at the new lows, it's gonna happen.

      • 1 Reply to alberth00
      • i thought that was an astute message. I see where Wal mart is saying people are now spending their store gift cards ONLY On basics. Basic food items , diapers.
        whereas in the past they would use gift cards on more extravgent items. and most always spend more than the gift card value.not so recently.
        with large retail stores i digress from your premise.
        large national chains have to make decisions some 2 years in advance. where is a hot market ? is expansion on the horizon or pulling back and huckering down.
        the status quo move quickly and if others get the coveted anchor position , you lose out.
        you can't make decisions based on day by day.

    • I heard something about all tenants are going to stop paying their leases because Fast Money is shorting SPG.

      Just kidding. It's all a joke really.

197.27+0.26(+0.13%)Oct 25 4:00 PMEDT