How can anyone be long or short in this market? Does anyone have any faith in the price of anything with action of today?
Now NASDAQ is going to cancel any trades above or below 60%. This is nuts. Good Luck, you are going to need it.
no, that's not what i meant. i simply meant that they'll give up their home (mtg not has no cash flow) before they give up the latest mac gadgets. this means malls will retain cash flow (via rental income via retail gadget sales) long after the equity tranche and even potentially mezzanine tranches get kicked in.
the important thing to note here is that this is not the case with the gse's. i haven't looked at cim at all, but i browsed the profile to check the core biz, and just found the contradiction hilarious. i mean the mix could be 90% agency for all i know, but i never miss a good ball busting session.
but you're certainly correct, another big wave in res default will crash mall reit stock prices. but you're not a price efficiency guy, hence my post. sorry, just having some fun at your expense, but the jokes on me as anything that has to be explained at this length can't be funny. lol. well played
>>>And you really believe that malls are the next big thing?
>>no where in any post have i ever even intimated that
No. But you said:
"people are ditching their homes to shop at malls"
implying that malls are going to soar or even stay stable at the expense of housing. That's a big joke. If housing goes down again, malls will go down BIG time.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. An economy's strength is not borrowing and consumption (which is exemplified by malls). It is savings and production. This is however too complicated a principle for Keynesians to understand.
>>I'm finally trying my hand at forgetting what I think ought to happen and go where the money is.
that ain't res cdo equity tranches.
>>Fact is that residential has been clobbered and malls are still sky-high.
another example of the fallacy of your logic of pursuing the "money"
>>I have enough short positions to make this a viable hedging strategy if nothing else.
perhaps, but it's not the best hedge as the allocation is ass backwards.
>>And you really believe that malls are the next big thing?
no where in any post have i ever even intimated that, i'm just pointing out that old cliche about fools and money. but good luck, there is certainly a probability it could work, even if it is a miniscule one.
I'm finally trying my hand at forgetting what I think ought to happen and go where the money is. Fact is that residential has been clobbered and malls are still sky-high. So in my book it is a better bet. But it is certainly a contradiction as I do think residential has even further to fall. However if this prop up and stimulus game is going to continue for some more time then I intend to profit from it if I can.
I have enough short positions to make this a viable hedging strategy if nothing else. Besides Salty has done well in bottom-fishing in the past and I trust his judgement. Anyway the whole thing is moot since my limit order is far enough away that it may not even fill!
And you really believe that malls are the next big thing? What a joke.