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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

  • southshoretrader southshoretrader Mar 23, 2013 3:15 PM Flag

    Ignore Basher Nonsense -- Stick With The Fundamentals

    It's almost comical how all of these "expert day traders" are so sure about every tick. Fundamentals are the high ground in any stock battle. Anyone who bothered to do their proper due diligence and actually listen to the quarterly conference call knows how rock solid holding this stock is. Is their a large short position temporarily holding this down, perhaps. But these people betted on Washington politicians, BAD MOVE!

    I wrote earlier that Red State Democrats like Max Baucus - MT and Mary Landrieu - LA would listen to what THEIR VOTERS WANT, NOT WHAT FEINSTEIN WANTS. The N.R.A has a backbone unlike most politicians. They made damn sure that those Senators got the message of their constituents loud and clear.
    Every single National poll -- including liberally biased ones shows overwhelmingly that the American public does not want their 2nd Amendment rights tinkered with at all. The fact that Feinstein is running around crying like Bloomberg like a child taking their ball home, only furthers stronger sales -- not to mention the enormous backlog we already have. Go back and listen to what Feinstein said herself -- in the Senate back in 1995 about -- her personal right to carry a concealed weapon. More Socialist hypocrisy. This bill is already doomed, stripped of AR ban in the Senate and surely doomed in the House -- the last line to defend against this Chicago regime. This will be Owe - bamas second political defeat. Once Americans start feeling Owe- bama care really start to rob them in 2014 we take back the Senate and he's put in check as a lame duck. Until then expect very strong demand in both guns and ammo. Smart INVESTORS know this and will profit mightily in wake of it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • How's them fundementals working out for you today?
      This is a sell until some clarity is given on Secondary!!!

    • One last thing. Although I do love my composite M&P 45's and SWHC says that's the direction they're headed in I find it amazing it has taken them this long to counteract the GLOCK. Glock went from an idea to almost taken over the whole pistol market in a few short years.
      I personally don't like the squareness of them and don't own one. As I mentioned I do own M&P's for the accessibility of the ammo and because they're American made. But, my favorite 45 carry pistol is a Sig P220. Not plastic, but the curves are lovely and smooth, unlike the boxy, sharp M&P and Glocks and the weight isn't all that bad if you're use to carrying daily. The sites are great and it shoots like a dream.
      I keep a loaded S&W 9mm in an under desk drawer holster; if it's stolen I haven't lost much. I sleep with a RGR LCP 380, so as you can see I'm not really biased for or against any one company.

    • If you think institutions don't make mistakes I simply refer you back to 2008. Wachovia - gone, WaMu - gone Countrywide - on monetary morphine on BAC's books. But that can't fall... because it's being falsely propped up by the money printer in chief "Helicopter Ben".

      This companies gross margins improved by 6.9% in one quarter, that's massive improvement. Debney specified multiple times, that improving the margins is their primary focus - not acquisitions! It would have to be terms extremely favorable to SWHC for him to even consider it. Their fiscal year ends soon, not with the calendar year, which means we get next years guidance on the next CC. RGR is walking new analyst's around the manufacturing plants -- that's officially been documented -- not my speculation. You can expect new coverage with bullish outlooks. That only benefits SWHC as these stocks trade very close to each other, not in price obviously, but in sympathy. Until I see an 8-K filed about a purchase, it stays purely speculation about possible acquisitions.

      This stock is still trading below the Sandy Hook levels, below where insiders purchased it, and still has a median target of $13.10. The recent shelf registration leaves much to speculation, but the CC points to either a new common stock repurchasing or retirement of existing debt. Both improve margins.

      • 2 Replies to southshoretrader
      • corrections to the below post:
        "You CAN really say....."
        "They got $60 Million in CASH"

      • Those are Companies, not Institutional Investors. Hedge funds aren't as stupid as Govt. regulated and insured banks where it was and still is a free for all.
        You could have also mentioned SWHC when they overpaid for the security company by $25 million or when they almost went extinct in 2000 with a $40 million cap. It's all relative.
        The companies gross margin was up 6.9% and the stock price has tripled, that's massive improvement also, so you can't really say that most positives are baked into the stock price.
        Hanging onto a stock when the writing is on the wall of a Secondary is your choice. I have been there and done that, it wasn't kind to me.
        Funny, one person says I'm a pumper, next says I'm a short. I'm both, depends on the news, direction of stock price and volume. I don't care if the Co. make widgets or guns....all can be traded profitably both up and down. The stock market isn't a one way street, why do so many people become stubborn about learning this SIMPLE fact. You can make money on the upside and downside.
        Secondary is going to happen. I predict this right here and now. It will not be for a share buyback as that is not what secondaries are for. Tired of trying to educate people on this very simple concept. If you don't agree, PLEASE show me where a company did a secondary to buy back its own stock, besides, they got $60 million in stock, they should have bought back sub $5. To buy back even $100 million now with borrowed money would be about as smart as buying another security company.
        Someone else on this board mentioned a dividend. If SWHC didn't have an acquisition in mind and they thought earnings would be stable over next few years they would have implemented one, yet they didn't. BECAUSE the Secondary and pending purchase is gonna wipe out existing cash base.
        Again, Secondary is for a purchase of another company or In my dreams it would be for R&D to build an ammo factory and/or another factory to fill in missing products they wish they carried

    • DoEs southshoretrader get an "amen".

      how does one cover a 14,000,000 short position?

      I wonder if the mm's can accurate inventory.

      • 2 Replies to pow_351_go
      • For people who day trade, nothing about any of this is comical and the only tics I hear about are from the "Short conspiracers", not day should associated the post to the person before making such comments as all these tics are mentioned by the "Buy and Hold" crowd regarding shorters and the MM's. Day traders love it when shorts and longs are in full battle mode as we can trade the larger swings. It is comical though when people claim it's gonna shoot to $15.00 on a Freedom buy or when they announce purpose of Secondary. These people speak of what they do not know.

        SWHC has 23% of float short.
        RGR has 30% of float short.
        I'm going to assume the large short positions will be partially covered on sell the news when the A/W ban bill finally passes in it's very watered down form, when the Market as a whole pulls back because of EU problems or when RGR and/or SWHC spend big bucks to buy up Freedom Group or parts of it.
        The only way (and it will eventually happen if mgmt. stays true and doesn't make STUPID acquisitions) to get share price increase is to keep showing Q on Q sales and earning increases....PERIOD! And I'm not just talking one quarter, but numerous quarters, so this is where patience comes in to play.

        If any of you think that there is 23-30% shorts out there that are retail investors, your naive. These are Institutional Investors who know what they are doing. They wouldn't short these many shares to get steamrolled. Maybe lose 1-3%, but not 50% as people claiming this will climb to.

      • If not an amen, how about a thumb's up fo him.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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