Not sure what to think about this tender. Time is short. While I do not like the long term effect, taking 7,000,000 shares out of the float is going to impact price. Esp with regard to shorts . The company is going to be generating cash in the next year. So by this time next year, the company will have almost $2000 million in cash.
I always wondered about how this tender business happens. I never received anything about it and went out to my TD site expecting some notification about it. Nothing. Turns out while I was up at our vacation lake home, my wife buried my tender for 10k shares in a pile of junk mail. LOL I found it 2 days before July 15th, and asked her when it came. She had no idea and thought it was junk. I told her not to worry because it was junk. This will go to 16 if not higher. I might start selling chunks of this at 13-15. Not the whole deal. I'm still trying to get a triple on my $54K investment.
Well, not 2000 million but maybe 140 million. I think swhc does not raise the tender but informs everyone that they will buy the shares on the open market. I can't in my right mind sell at 8 future PE. I have 10K shares at 5.40 and even though I can easily double up, I just can't do it. This type of investment opportunity doesn't come along everyday, folks. It's a once in a 10 year opportunity. Just be glad you found a depressed stock and ride it to where it gets sold. This company will be sold and it will sell for upwards of 18. That will still be less than a normal 15 PE sale.
This will be the 3rd depressed stock I have bought in my adult life and each has profited me more than $100k. I expect this to do me the same. I'm still playing with my original $40k investment from over 20 years ago. It has shortened my work life by at least 15 years by being patient on these situations. Why MMs and shorts bet against a 8 PE stock is beyond belief. They always end up losing but they do it over and over. Somebody ALWAYS comes in and turns it around like Debney has done. In and out they say. Oh well, get ready people. When SWHC stock trading is halted suddenly in the near future, it will open trading again at the price or very near the price the company is sold for. Expect it to be 18-20. That will only be a 16 PE which is sub par for this kind of thing. Shorts will know their price to buy it back at that time. People have committed suicide over these situations. I don't care. Most of them lost a lot of money when the company was in their hay day and are bitter that it tanked. The key is to buy depressed companies and wait for the white knight to turn it around. Add Obama, ill advised attacks on the second amendment and you have a perfect storm. I still expect RGR to buy SWHC with their expanded manufacturing capability. Wait for the announcements to come out.
Actually I am not concerned with the Tender. The way I look at this now is more Long Term. After the Tender, who knows where we may be...perhaps $11.00 will be the Base for the Next Leg up. I only bought a few hundred shares this afternoon, when I saw it drop back down...in fact I got in @ $11.02 . So if we perhaps get another Tender at $12.00 or higher, I can sell it all off, my original shares and these Newer Ones. So any share reduction that occurs I see as being in our favor, no matter what. Yes that Cash position is good going forward, and I see nothing but good things onward from here. Just trying to look down the road a bit. I think it will work out just fine...and good luck to you Equity. Been away for a few days with some other trades. Hit a good one with EQM the last couple days.