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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

  • neilkrohl neilkrohl Sep 10, 2013 8:33 PM Flag

    Question for all investors

    Can someone tell me why this has been over $10 per share only a handful of times in the past five years? Looking at the charts it seems like over $10 is the exception and under $7 is the norm. Has the company become more valuable? What does it deserve to be over $10 as opposed to its history of an avg pps of under $8 in the past 5 years? Only serious answers.

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    • Simple answer: "Poor management that puts itself above the shareholder."
      No dividend.
      No excess manuf. capacity.
      End of Gun Bubble.
      Large "liability exposure" for Thompson Center recalls, besides the repair cost. swhc has never mentioned the liability in any public forum, yet there are Federal lawsuits out there specifically asking for compensation regarding actual injuries sustained by defective products.
      Cost of entry for other manufactures is low, company is always fighting for market share in every segment. Not true the past 7 months, but "Game On" again for sale, rebates and freebies to entice buyers.
      Excessive (and I do mean EXCESSIVE) Option awards that they have never missed exercising in the money. No matter how bad sales were, they always made money selling their Options.
      35 years behind Glock. That's millions and millions of Glocks that are still floating around that people are buying accesories for, thus taking potential discretionary money from swhc.
      Two generations have grown up on Glocks as the premier Polymer "Gold Standard".

      SWHC is a trade, not a buy (or sell) and hold.

    • Because sales and profits only supported a stock price of $7-$10. Seems to me that perhaps sales and profits are permanently much higher. Unfortunately, investors are not so convinced, and the guidance for next quarter suggest that sales and profits may decline to the "old norms". Time will tell.
      The reduce number of production days due to the SAP manufacturing execution system implementation this summer is the cause of the weak guidance for this quarter. Plan those missed sales to be additive to next quarter. SWHC will be back to over $12 by Christmas--IMHO.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • I meant to say Why does it deserve to be over $10 as opposed to its history of an avg pps of under $8 in the past 5 years?

      • 4 Replies to neilkrohl
      • SWHC has much stronger fundamentals than TASER.
        SWHC has a PE of 8. TASER has a PE of 40 and weaker sales and profit growth.
        Stock Market Illogic.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • Serious answer - look at the fundamentals, valuation and future anticipated cash flows (at those historic points in time).

        For SWHC, the last point (expected future performance) is where it finds itself in the penalty box. The market still hasn't rationalized continued high demand, so therefore, weak valuation.

        Overly simplistic analogy - Apple last yr. through current trading; lack of confidence in forward performance.

        Why am I still confident mid-term - PE firms like making money on good investments. Management will make more $ through a sale than through the current dynamic. Funds are accumulating. More analysts are covering the stock.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • You asked for a serious answer, but your question is, again, ludicrous. Take a look at revenues, growth, profits, then don't ask why it doesn't revert to some historical mean. SW has more revenue and very comparable income to Ruger, but it's valuation ratios are 50% of Rugers.

        You need to di some rudimentary due diligence before you invest a dime. From your question, its obvious you haven't even looked at the yahoo financial reports. Dummy!

      • Hope. Hope for more profit from more sales and a higher profit margin in those increased sales.

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