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Caterpillar Inc. Message Board

  • grafelfing grafelfing May 28, 2006 11:34 AM Flag

    This can't be good for Cat SHORTS

    ... can it?
    Rollg 3mo April Cat Sales up 8% compared to 05
    Oil at $70/barrel = lots of Cat Gen Sets, Power Systems, and Cat Machines/Trucks to excavate Tar Sands
    Fed will pause, ST rates above 5.5% will tailspin economy
    Copper still 467% above its 2003 price, that can't be good for Cat SHORTS can it?
    Uranium is outstripping supply by 100 million pounds per year, price in 2000 was $8/lb, today its $30, that can't be good for Cat SHORTS can it? is reporting China's growth in 2006 will continue at a torrid pace of 9.3% in 2006, and 8.8% in 2007. That can't be good for Cat SHORTS can it?
    India's grwth rate 2006 is 5.3%, and 5.2% in 2007, Australia's will push up to 3.1 in 2006, and 3,6% in 2007, Germany's GDP will increase 70% from 1% to 1.7% in 2006. Germany loves Cat machines, even over Liebherr.
    Housing has moderated but new commercial/industrial building is in a boom with starts up 41% so far in 2006.
    With Cat's Dlr sales above at 8%, dictating a 16 pe and at an average eps in 06 of $5.28 that's a pps of $84, and at a eps of $5.96 in 2007, that's a pps of $95, That can't be good for Cat shorts, can it?
    Cat remains the #1 competitor by far in almost everything it produces! I can't find anything negative on Cat. I suppose I could if I looked at some chart,,, but that's not doing your homework.. that's tantamount to voodoo!
    Buy on the pull back! We're in a super cycle for Cat machines!

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    • The charts tell the same story.

      CAT pulled back to the bottom of a channel that it has been running in since last fall.

      Last friday it started back to the top of that channel. However, if the market has taken a bearnish turn, it will only go back up to the $77 - $79 price area before heading back down with the market. That's worst case.

      You'ld make more money shorting SPY if the market really tanks -- CAT was knocked down farther than SPY because it was flying ahead of the pack before the correction.

      If the market continues the upswing it is on now, CAT ends up at $85 at the top of the channel.

      I'm willing to see what happens between $77 and $79.

      On chart TA -- charts show, in graphical form, the battle between supply and demand, fear and greed, growth and competition. Once you learn to "read" the story of the chart, it is like having a map of the history of the equity. History tends to repeat, or at least impact the future of any moving thing. Trading without a good understanding of chart TA is like driving blindfolded while taking directions from the fundamental whispers about the equity, sector, market and economy. To trade well, take off the blindfolds -- do complete fundamental and technical analysis before every trade.

      CAT is a strong by by every fundamental standard a company can register. The technicals say there is good money to be made on the upside. Why fight that when there is money to be made?


    • Whoops I almost forgot... and Cramer, Benwaa and the AUDITOR say BUY CAT! Keep an eye on that Benwaa dude.. he's balanced he's capable of putting a SELL or Hold on Cat as well!

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