Cat should hit 125 easily and more but question is when. Key events to trigger are quarterly results and completement of acquisitions, mainly Bucyrus. I went back to 2010 1st qtr results and company did increase their guidance so I expect this will happen again on April 29, when they announce. Also expect they will announce acquistion of MWM finalized then or shortly thereafter. The big move will come though once they announce that Bucyrus is done. Now, given that business is better than they forecasted and possible divesture of Cat Logistics, they might be able to absorb Bucyus without issuing more shares and dilution. If they can avoid that dilution, $125 is just the start...EPS with Bucyrus could be $7 to $7.40, IMO. The next big event would be 3rd qtr results in November when they typically give their outlook for 2012. If they stick to their previous guidance of $8 to 10 EPS, we should EASILY see 150 or more by YE. That is what makes Jan 2012 calls look so attractive.
Bikeman, good post. I concur. $40 bucks from here will be a tough slog with some pull backs along the way but it is certainly possible. This has been a great run by a clear market leader with plenty of leg left. Sure beats '08-'09 experience.
See attached post from Seeking Alpha, same opinion.
Baut $150 Jan2011 calls a couple of days ago at $105/contract... small position. It is a long shot. I figure that is mess in Japan got to boost this company worldwide with Komatsu hobbled. Plus the synergies with BUCY including the dealer network.
If it makes to $125 the options could double. In that case, I would cash half the position and ride with the house money.
Budy at the rate CAT is climbing now, given a little slower after earnings, because of the massive run it is in now. I think you will see 200-210 by end of year.
I am in the agricultural area and involved with farming for many years. Along with the global growth coming at us at like a freight train. Cat will start falling behind on their orders! No way can this company keep up with the growth tht is projected for next few years unless they build twice as many factories as they have now and hire twice the employment over next few years. seriously, we are looking at one of the greatest growth stories of our times with CAT leading IBD's top 20 stocks for sometime to come. 3-4 years look for at least a double in stock price from 200 end of this year.
I see Libya as pretty much a non-event. It is a blip on the radar screen compared to what the market's gone through with Japan.
In as much as the markets hate instability, the apparent successes in stabilizing Japanese nukes will trump Libya.
CAT has a lot of upside in the coming months and years - first with the generally improving world economies and second, naturally, as a partner in rebuilding Japan.