I think we'll probably see a little run up to earnings again. Maybe we get to $97. Seems to be the pattern recently. But I think the numbers for Q4 '12 will be pretty disappointing. Most of the Midwest plants were on temporary layoff in November and December and vehicle shipments were probably down quite a bit. Since Cat lowered guidance for the year at the Q3 conference call just three month ago I'd be surprised if they're very far off. But as always it's the future guidance that matters. If 2H '13 is looking like a strong recovery we could be off to the races again. We'll just have to be patient and see what they say on the 28th.
Even with hurricane Sandy? I live in the North East and all I've seen are Caterpillar generators at office buildings, not to mention the massive rebuilding needed at the coastal areas. I'd be happy with $97.
It may get there but it won't be because of earnings, which I don't believe will be all that great, it will be because of forward guidance or the lack of people understanding what will be happening in the 6 to 8 week period ahead of us.