Well Oberhelman said the first half was going to be weak and I guess he knew what he was talking about. That's plenty weak. Looks to me as though the stock is holding up pretty well given the fact that first quarter results are going to really suck. However, if he was right, second half strength should overcome first half weakness for a net up year. Of course it's easier to see the first half weakness in January than it is to see the second half strength but the Cat economist's are pretty good. We'll just have to see how it plays out. I think if we see a major pullback below $80 I'd back the truck up and take advantage of the fire sale.
I totally agree with you rich,Oberhelman did not sugar cote anything,straight up front.
What I am impressed about,is what benwaw said about the back log being down 37%,I think that is not bad.I thought mabe it was all canceled considering all things.I dont know how ben knows, are how he gets is information,but I would take his word on it.I know that does not count as sales,but it shows that there is a good outlook ahead.
I am surprised at all the dumping,but I do understand that some are trying to save what they have,and thats not bad either.Some will be back.
Ben has connections that work at Cat. His calls on the order board are always spot on so someone is giving him good (probably insider) information about orders. If Ben says the order board is weak or strong take it to the bank. Cat definitely doesn't want the backlog to drop regardless of whether it's due to filling it or having it canceled. Backlog is future money in the bank and a guard against a potential slow down. Some mines will cancel orders for future machines but that's a tough decision to make. Getting back in at the end of the line can be a long wait. Lead times for large truck can be 18+ months.