The IBD mo-mo traders have pretty much bailed from the stock. In tonight's edition the paper discusses its effect on the stock action today.
Ezcorp (EZPW) sliced its 50-day line, dropping 1.62, or 10%, to 14.50 on double normal trade. The stock analysis in today's IBD 100 warned the stock was making new highs on declining volume.
I remember you Robb.... I've been in EZPW since last summer
and I am still holding! Glad to see you back on the board
and glad to see you long! Usually a stock will bounce back as long as an earnings disappointment isn't forthcoming and I don't believe that is the case with EZPW. BUT I HAVE BEEN WRONG BEFORE believe it or not! But I'm still on the long side. Yahooooooooooooooooooo!
Yes, the recent selloff has taken EZ down to the 200day. The last time we were in that territory EZPW was trading around $13 pre-split. Between options expiration and the comments I have heard from Jeffbas and Therealbm on the IIG board regarding puts forcing the MM to short, a pullback didn't surprise me. I just didn't think we would go this low. But this is also the first time in a while EZPW didn't preannounce which may have spooked some IBDers.
I was on margin till November so while I acquired a meaningful IIG position, I didn't back up the truck. I have never liked the large short float but I am more comfortable with it now than before - it just means trading opportunities for the TA masters :) I did a bit too much selling the last few months so I now have some cash to put to work. I picked up another 100 shares of IIG today at $22.55 (thinking MMs trying to take out $22.50 calls) and another 1000 shares of CPNE at $1.77. When I was accumulating CPNE I noticed the stock tends to be stronger in the early hours and fade into the close so the best time to pick up shares is later in the day.
Given that the markets are not in correction mode yet I still want to be sparing with my purchases as market corrections create opportunities and I don't want to be short cash when that occurs.
OT-In recent weeks I have picked up via Snapnames the following micro-positions: tradingcamp.com, stocknewsblog.com, dateszone.com, texasretirees.com, californiaretirees.com, iforextrader.com, subarrio.com (Span-your neighborhood) & tiendavirtual.net(Span-virtual store). Tomorrow is my faceoff for floridaretirees.com but I won't chase it too high- it's just a name.
I'll preface this by saying that I am a big IBD fan and have used SOME of their principles to make good money; however, I would also say that 1) many of the comments written in their newspaper appear to be written by 'journalists' and not serious investors; 2) some stocks exhibit technical patterns that are not amenable to conventional IBD (technical) analysis and 3) sufficient earnings growth relative to P/E always trumps technicals. I'll also say that I hold a large position in EZPW.
Regarding amateurish comments, more than one article in their paper derided steel and oil stocks in 2004 - 2005. Following IBD paper comments blindly would have meant not participating in the appreciation in these sectors.
Regarding "Ezcorp (EZPW) sliced its 50-day line, dropping 1.62, or 10%, to 14.50 on double normal trade. The stock analysis in today's IBD 100 warned the stock was making new highs on declining volume, " this statement was written by someone who hasn't looked at the EZPW daily chart for the last year. EZPW has been below its 50 day moving average (DMA) five (and now six) times since May, 2006. For whatever reason, EZPW has repeatedly finds support at its 100 DMA, as it did today, rather than at its 50 DMA. Some volatile stocks exhibit this same behavior so 'sliced its 50-day line' is not as important as it sometimes is. On 10/30/2006, it dropped below its 50 DMA on 1,800,000 shares, ended the day at $12.14. However, two weeks later, it gapped up by $2.00 on volume of 12,391,400 shares
EZPW has a peculiar trading pattern. Its significant upward moves happen close to or at the time of earnings releases. It's almost as if those are the only times that institutions are accumulating shares. And they are accumulating shares: 1) the number of funds invested in EZPW have grown from 37 to 60 since May, 2005, and in the prior quarter to the present, institutional ownership has grown 13%, with an additional 5,106,250 shares purchased.
You need to post more often! EZPW will be up 20% next week with more than 10 million shares traded after they crush their numbers and raise guidance for fiscal 2007.
That TA stuff is a lot of smoke and mirrors, but solid growth is like crack to Wall Street!
E-A-R-N-I-N-G-S is what eventaully trumps all on Wall Street!
The most significant aspect of today wa sthat we lost the IBD mo-mo Morons.
Did you notice the company sent out a press release after the bell inviting everyone to listen to their conference call? Good news is right around the corner!