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Medivation, Inc. Message Board

  • andswhisper andswhisper Mar 1, 2013 10:35 PM Flag

    Heres what happened

    take a look money went into ARRY huge pipeline and poised to blast off

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    • Since ARRY's market cap only increased by about $400k yesterday, that seems an unlikely explanation. Here's what I think happened: Schmidt, the Cowen & Co.analyst, obviously stuck his neck out by issuing a warning about "obstacles" just hours before the earnings report. We can assume that their traders had been shorting the stock ahead of this. (If the stock hadn't been rallying Wednesday, would Cowen have felt the need to issue their analysis so late in the game?)They then drove the stock down 2 points, after which it rebounded to close almost exactly where it opened. So at the close,they were underwater. They then hit the stock hard at the open Friday, and tried to convince everyone that the new price was 46 by batting it back and forth around that level. Since the stock fought hard to break out of this price range, this probably cost them some more money. Now we will watch to see how they extricate themselves. My own expectation is that they will let it pop a quarter or so on Monday, and then attack it again. As I posted elsewhere, I think Schmidt screwed up by polling urologists, rather than oncologists, who were the actual target market in the Xstandi launch. Urologists, aside from the academic setting, are not going to prescribe Xtandi off-label for pre-chemo patients. When the PREVAIL study is completed, I would expect Xtandi to gradually replace Zytiga among pre-chemo patients. Other potential nearterm catalysts: European, Japanese, or Korean approval of Xtandi for post-chemo patients.

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