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Steel Dynamics Inc. Message Board

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  • Box7 Box7 Jan 23, 1998 12:18 PM Flag


    I think you'll win with STLD, don't sweat this one. Just buy at these levels.

    I like to remember that steels are real cyclicals. Buy low , sell much higher. You gotta wait sometimes. But I think you are really buying low now, and the trend is just beginning up.

    About other suggestions, ... you know equities are a tough racket.

    I like buyuing the out of favors, that I think will always be around, that are also starting to pick up. I don't really see much else.

    My portfolio consists of steels, oils, oil service, (including OCTG- that's oil country tubular goods), a couple of healthcare issues ( i've held bax for a long time, and still have a part investment in IHS).

    My biggest five holdings are, in order, XON, followed by X( new entry just added US Steel, nice dividend too), then SLB, then BAX.

    I bought STLD in the low 16's a few weeks ago. I really like STLD. I also own WS (easy to buy a lot of shares of this one, I
    expect it to see 15-20 in 4 years!!!). Actually most of the steels are great buys. I like OS, which i own. I like the majors IAD,
    BS, NUE. I've aprobably bought too much BS, I've heard some negative things from a distributor, but in the scheme of things,
    when the steels really pop, it doesn't matter, BS will rally with em.. Nothing wrong with BIR. Back to WS, look at their recent
    JV with that Dutch mill, I wouldn't be surprised to see this as a potential suitor!- my thoughts are undeveloped on this one,
    except common sense).

    I think that there will be an up surge, one of these days, weeks or months, that is going to really bring back the value to these steel equities.

    I want to tell you a story. I used to own the oil drilling contractor stocks ( I still have a smidgeon, jsut to get the annual reports).
    Anyway, I was buying NDCO- it is now NE - at 4, and 3 1/2, and even 2 3/4. I was buying low low, when they were out of favor, but when the momemtem was jsut starting.

    anyway, NDCO hit 38 this year, and I sold at 18, and 34. I made about a six bagger (600 percent) in about 4 years. Bad part is taxes. All of this money and more is in the steels now.

    I think, for example, that WS, is going to do something similar to what NDCO - now NS, did. ]

    When the steels rally, there will be lots of doubting Thomases, out there. Better not short!

    Neat one to look at is BBY. You know, BBY was below 10 for awhile in the past 12 months- people were actually taling bankruptcy, now bby is in the upper 40's.

    Good fortune to you, and I hope you get some value from this forum. It has been a little helpful tome, I just don't understand the hate.

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    • Despite some of the baloney on this board I'm glad to see Box7 back in the fray. Any intelligent viewpoint here is
      appreciated, at least by me. Everyone needs to base there decisions on their own sound research. Any input here is free advice, and I
      suggest everyone take it for what it's worth. So here's mine; I spent a long time looking at STLD. I put a significant amount of
      money in this company as part of an extremely well diversified, broad- based portfolio. Yesterday morning, after careful
      consideration, I regretfully pulled 90% of my money out of the stock market. I still own ten percent of my original STLD investment. This
      is a great company but let's look at economic reality. First let's start with Lakecrazy's earlier post (#60?). Like it or not,
      cheap steel is coming, and soon. Foriegn countries aren't going to let their entire core infrastructure industries collapse
      without a REAL price war. Will American industry get governmental protection? Probably, but not before a lot of red ink has been
      spilled. Congress is too busy with other things, like frying Bill Clinton. The IMF money authorization, needed to help stabilize and
      bail out Asia is "temporarily" stalled while the sharks circle in for the kill. Opps! The last time a president was forced from
      office the stock market dropped 40% in six months. What's the difference between then and now? Plenty. World economies are a mess.
      Read the papers, watch the news. Despite your personal views on Clinton, at best he's going to have an extremely tough time. Even
      the rats are jumping ship, and I voted for this guy. Year to date money going into mutual funds is down almost 90% from 1997.
      This is a staggering figure. Where is all this money going and why? It's going out of the stock market and into government
      securities. When fund managers don't have any money what happens? I talked with some smart people ( I won't bore you with their
      backgrounds) before bailing out Friday. The next six to twelve months are going to be "volatile" to say the least. One analyst on Friday
      told me (read between the lines) "if you're not prepared to be in this market for the next 3-5 years you shouldn't be in it at
      all" This guy makes alot of money selling the stock market today. He doesn't make that money in 3-5 years. This is free advice.
      Take it for what it's worth. I'll continue to monitor this board and wish all the best. Good Luck

    • More than any other stock this was the most difficult to sell. As stated in an earlier post, I believe this company represents the best America has to offer. The question for me in the short term (6-12 months); Is the best good enough? If I don't know the answer I probably shouldn't ask the question.

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