According to analyst concensus:
December 2011 projected revenue= $23MM. Despite $23MM revenue, OPTR is still losing money with a EPS of -0.34. March 2012 looks even worse. Projected revenue (falling) to $16.63MM with OPTR losing bigger money with EPS of -0.42. Sales growth projected for March 2012 is -42%. Sales growth for current quarter is -9.7% and by next quearter expected to be -neagative -140%. For those of you who can't interpret data, (THIS IS BAD). I can tell you based on clinical experience the analyst are right. Dificid is not that hot and is definintly not a block buster drug nor a first line agent. The shelves of hospitals are well stocked with not much use. Future sales trajectory is expected to be low. I guess analyst and physicians are stupid and must be "educated" according to some longs on this board.
that you are dead WRONG with your comment:
"Dificid is only useful in patients infected with vancomycin resistant srains of C.diff."
the correct way to state your comment would have been, imo, :
"Dificid is just as useful at treating patients with c-diff as vancomycin; AND, it is superior in REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RECURRENCES of c-diff, which occur in approx 20-30% of patients, and for which any patient you ask will say they DO NOT WISH TO HAVE A RECURRENCE of this nasty disease."
to use a drug that is just as effective at cure, and MORE EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING RECURRENCES (which occurs 20% of the time with c-diff patients and causes multiple re-hospitalizations)...you have ignored the superiority Dificid has over vanco before, so not surprised you are ignoring it again...you simply cannot come to terms with the clinical study data that showed SUPERIORITY over vanco at reducing recurrences, can you?
Why in the world would you support the use of a drug that could INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SOMEONE WOULD BE RE-HOSPTALIZED FOR THE SAME DISEASE vs. using a new drug that has been PROVEN to reduce that probability? makes no sense...especially if you put yourself in the place of the patient; but, then, maybe you have just not done that...
imo, of course, but supported by large clinical studies, FDA, etc...
Also, let's discuss the effectiveness OVER TIME (at 25 days, at 40 days) of both drugs...that's sure to get a rise outta ya...
In clinical trials, recurrence to Dificid was 15% and Vancomycin was 20%. Longs only quoted vancomycin recurrence of 20% but failed to mention Dificid recurrence of 15%. This shows that the majority of recurrence is not due to vancomycin resistance. I bet you did not know this fact about the study.
Hopefully your immature comments does not reflect your intelligence. No need to cover anything. Already made $$$ on OPTR going long, now waiting for OPTR to take a dive before buying more at a lower price. Thinking about $10.50. Have you even broke even since you posted?
The FDA will not tell physicians how to practice. Please note, the FDA did not approve Dificid to replace vancomycin either. Dificid indication is neutral. Up to the MD to decide when to use or not to use. I am not sure where you are going with this point.
If recurrence is due to resistance, than Dificid is beneficial. If resistance is due to re-infection, Dificid offers no advantage. In the real world, recurrence is due to re-infection. Therefore Dificid offers not much of an advantage. Hope you can understand this concept.