Debating what Options to buy ( want to quantify risk with all the upside). Looking out to September to make sure the deal happens before expiration. Think July/ Aug expire too soon and with 3 bidders this process could take some time. Debating between:
Sept 15 Call which is currently at 1.7 and the Sept 17.5 Call @ .6. I think the buyout is more likely to be in 17-20 range than 20+ so I am leaning towards the 15 buck calls but I am looking for some insight on the board. Thanks in advance for your input.
After reading bloomberg, the article indicated a decision would be made before the end of July. This means OPTR will decide on who acquires them and try to negotiate the highest price possible over a weekend. If you have a strong conviction then I would recommend deep in the money calls. This way you do not have to guess the takeout price, save on commissions and benefit from the higher delta movement. SEP seems to have the highest option liquidity. If you have a weak conviction then the AUG $17.50 OTM calls should satisfy the speculator in you. One note though. Take a look at today's OTM PUT activity for JUL, AUG, and SEP. Also PUT open interest for DEC. The PUT activity today was more than the open interest. Why would someone be making large buys of deep OTM PUTs? I know there is a high short interest in OPTR and don't how this would be related. So I am suspect on these trades until I understand them better.
Correct me if I am wrong and keep in mind I'm not sure what the open interest in the puts was prior to today but: if the open interest decreased and volume was higher than open interest wouldn't it mean it was a lot of closed contracts which in turn would be bullish? If open interest increased I'd say bearish ? Are you worried Optr wants too much and won't be able to work a deal? Other than that I do not see how those deeper OTM puts will come into the money.