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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • inforesource7 inforesource7 Jul 19, 2013 2:48 PM Flag

    Buyout News Monday or Monday?

    Optimer's decision on final bidding and who they will be acquired by should be coming soon. I predict official news on merger Monday (7-22) or merger Monday (7-29). Good Luck to all.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • ucited,

      In regards to FFEX, any stock position acquired over 5% needs to be reported. EDGAR SEC shows a filing for FFEX on 7-15-13 by Duff. It also indicates a tender offer which is to his benefit to start buying shares lower. He cleverly timed the purchases simultaneously one day before the official announcement. Perfectly legit. Notice all of the lawyers filing suit already.

      I cant see CBST buying up 4.99% of OPTR common shares on any potential poor earnings report before any written agreement is in place. There is too much orchestration there to save how much? and smoke out the lawyers.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • ucited,

      SEC Reg FD manages the earnings pre-announcement process. Lawyers are aware of the tricks that busy is poor and this is why we had to sell. This can all be proven during discovery if a lawsuit moves forward. Acquirers do not want to get involved in messy lawsuits.

      I know we most likely will not be discussing any tender offers but I feel the same rules apply. "When the CEO and top managers of a company decide that they want to do a merger or acquisition, they start with a tender offer. The process typically begins with the acquiring company carefully and discreetly buying up shares in the target company, or building a position. Once the acquiring company starts to purchase shares in the open market, it is restricted to buying 5% of the total outstanding shares before it must file with the SEC. In the filing, the company must formally declare how many shares it owns and whether it intends to buy the company or keep the shares purely as an investment."

      So a potential acquirer can make open market purchases up to 5% without detection. Over 5% it becomes public. Feel free to add your knowledge.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • ucited,

      Never. How can you prove an acquirer buys shares before an announcement? Through filings or SEC allowable? If any announcement will be worth coming they are bound by a written document not to purchase. This should cover any investment bank or other advisors involved in the deal.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to inforesource7
      • inforesource7,
        These buys happen all the time. As an example, how do you think a hostile acquisition happens if a company can't buy shares on the open market? Do some research.

        Here's a copy and paste of a July 15th. announcement.....

        Under the terms of the merger agreement, FFE's stockholders will receive $2.10 in cash for each outstanding share of FFE common stock they own, representing a 23.5% premium over the closing price on July 12, 2013, the last full trading day before today's announcement, a 26.5% premium over the closing price on March 1, 2013, the last full trading day before the announcement that the Duffs had acquired approximately 5.84% of the outstanding shares of common stock of FFE and expressed an intent to discuss with FFE a negotiated acquisition and a 144.2% premium over the closing price on December 18, 2012, the last full trading day before the Duffs began open market purchases of FFE shares with a view towards accumulating a significant position.

        Notice that they stated that they had acquired a 5.84% stake PRIOR to the announcement.

        All of the above, just one man's opinion.

    • jfriedz87,

      I have no inside information, only my opinion. If you recall the latest news leak (bloomberg terminal) OPTR is planning to make a decision toward the end of this month. A majority of deals are usually announced on Mondays. OPTR earnings due on June 30. Many deals are announced prior (days or weeks) before to avoid questions about rumored sale process. A merger announcement prior to earnings report would take center stage. My best guess on price would be $18 or higher. The rumored $20 offer was a year old. Options traded in $2.50 increments makes it more challenging for speculators to observe a 'tell" and define a target price. I don't know about the sentiment of the street. Maybe there is some history here. There is heavy short interest so they are either dumb or smart. Smart money longs knows this and will apply their strategy accordingly.

      Fridays end of day price action was disappointing. Just shorts taking advantage by covering and longs accumulating at a lower price.

      Do you still have access to a bloomberg terminal?

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 2 Replies to inforesource7
      • ucited,

        I understand your opinion. If earnings are expected to be lower OPTR would have had to make a pre-announcement of such, otherwise suffer the consequences from the SEC. If OPTR decides to load up with unforseen expenses this might help your cause. To be honest I have never seen an acquirer purchase shares of a target. I an acquirer is prohibited from purchasing shares of a target due to regulations preventing this. PE firms might be a different story. Who do you think leaked the news about CBST's offer of $20.00 (reportedly made last year)? Someone in the "know" did. If OPTR agreed to be taken out at $16.75, OPTR and the board would be setting themselves up for many lawsuits due to the news leak on the $20 offer. All deal news leaks are planned, they dont just happen and you and I get lucky.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • Here's what my crystal balls say......

        OPTR will publish their quarter. It won't be good since they will be throwing everything, including the kitchen sink, into the expenses so that the acquirer's numbers will then look better on a going forward basis. The stock price will take a bit of a hit, allowing the acquirer to scoop up some cheap shares. Then OPTR will announce the sale at $16.75 and use the lowered stock price as a reason in order to justify the low $16.75 sale price.

        All of the above, just one man's opinion.

    • jfriedz87 Jul 19, 2013 5:18 PM Flag

      Doesn't surprise me we close below 15 on option expiration day with that OI. Interestingly enough the copromotional deal with cubist ends end of July. Activity may be on the horizon . Cubist had exactly 1bln in cash too . The amount they were rumored to have offered back in August (20pps).

    • jfriedz87 Jul 19, 2013 4:05 PM Flag

      Info why do you say those 2 Mondays? What buyout price are you expecting? i am playing this long via sept 17.5 calls @.4. Things have just been too quiet here on the optr boards. For a buyout candidate why do you think this stock gets no love from the street?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to jfriedz87
      • ''...For a buyout candidate why do you think this stock gets no love from the street?..''

        in my opinion, the answer is simple: CONFIDENTIALITY OF THE STRATEGIC REVIEW PROCESS

        the street doesn't know what the acquisition price would be, and the pps steady in the 14-16$ range is nothing else but street's love to a buyout candidate, without which it could have easily gone back to the jan-feb levels with the kind of earnings they reported